Cumulative Spread Margin
("Contrarian Bridgejumping")
Week One
If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:
As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.
While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
Week 1 "Cumulative Spread Margin" results 1984-2007
(using prior season's stats)
| Overlay |
6 - 7.9 |
8+ Pts |
| HomeFavs |
8 - 4 |
2 - 0 |
| HomeDogs |
7 - 4 |
11 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 6 |
8 - 6 |
| Favorites |
8 - 5 |
2 - 0 |
| Underdogs |
15 - 10 |
19 - 9 |
| Home Teams |
15 - 8 |
13 - 3 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 7 |
8 - 6 |
| ALL PICKS |
23 - 15 |
21 - 9 |
| WIN % |
60 % |
70 % |
Spread Ranges for the 6+ Difference plays
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
8 - 5 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 3 |
13 - 10 |
16 - 7 |
So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 44-24 record from 1984-2007.
Then in 2008 it was 3-1, but 0-2 in 2009.
Let's take a look then at the 2010 season matchups:
Away
CSM |
Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Home
CSM |
Pick |
CSM Diff |
| 3.5 |
Minnesota |
-4.5 |
New Orleans |
3 |
|
.5 |
| .2 |
Miami |
3 |
Buffalo |
-.7 |
|
.9 |
| 1.6 |
Indianapolis |
2.5 |
Houston |
2.2 |
|
-.6 |
| -5.5 |
Detroit |
-6 |
Chicago |
-2.6 |
|
-2.9 |
| 2 |
Atlanta |
2.5 |
Pittsburgh |
-2.8 |
|
4.8 |
| -1 |
Cleveland |
-3 |
Tampa Bay |
-1.4 |
|
.4 |
| .3 |
Cincinnati |
-4.5 |
New England |
3.4 |
|
-3.1 |
| .5 |
Denver |
-2.5 |
Jacksonville |
-5.1 |
|
5.6 |
| -3.1 |
Oakland |
-6.5 |
Tennessee |
-3.2 |
|
.1 |
| 3.6 |
Carolina |
-7 |
New York Giants |
-5.1 |
New York Giants |
8.7 |
| 3.4 |
San Francisco |
3 |
Seattle |
-4.5 |
Seattle |
7.9 |
| -.4 |
Arizona |
4 |
St. Louis |
-6.9 |
St. Louis |
6.5 |
| 5.3 |
Green Bay |
3 |
Philadelphia |
1 |
|
4.3 |
| 2.3 |
Dallas |
4 |
Washington |
-1.7 |
|
4 |
| 3.4 |
Baltimore |
-2 |
New York Jets |
5.5 |
|
-2.1 |
| 4.1 |
San Diego |
5.5 |
Kansas City |
-1.4 |
|
5.5 |
ANALYSIS:
Three teams get the nod by the CSM method for the openers, based on the prior season performance against the spread:
NY Giants -7, Seattle +3 and St. Louis +4.
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