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("Contrarian Bridgejumping") Week One If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first: As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game. Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game. Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game. While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
(using prior season's stats) Spread Ranges for the 6+ Difference plays So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 40-23 record from 1984-2005. Let's take a look then at the 2006 season matchups:
ANALYSIS: Three underdogs are selected by the CSM method for the openers, based on the prior season performance against the spread: St. Louis +3.5, Detroit +6.5, and Oakland +3.
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