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Trends
The following table shows how home teams with certain offensive/defensive rankings have done in matchups in the fifth week of the season and beyond using this rating scheme for both rushing yards and passing yards:
- Top 10 Ranking worth one point
- Rank of 11 to 20 worth two points
- Rank of 21+ worth 3 points
| Factors |
Home Rank
Points |
Spread W-L |
Spread Win% |
| Rushing Defense + Passing Defense |
2 |
183-129 |
59% |
| Rushing Offense + Passing Defense |
2 |
169-111 |
60% |
| Passing Offense + Passing Defense |
6 |
34-59* |
37% |
* as favorites
Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table there are three combinations that have been some distance from the 50% expected value. A few teams might be worth a closer look here in 2006:
- Miami - Rank #8 in rushing defense and #3 in passing defense
- Jacksonville - Qualifies on both positive trends. Rank #2 in rushing offense, #3 in rushing defense and #7 in passing defense
- Carolina - face a home team _Atlanta_ that ranks #32 in passing offense and #31 in passing defense
- Arizona - face a home team _San Francisco_ that ranks #28 in passing offense and #27 in passing defense
- Cincinnati - face a home team _Denver_ that ranks #25 in passing offense and #22 in passing defense
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