As stated in our introduction, we are generally statistically-oriented handicappers. With week two since the current stats are only from one game and too dependent on who you played and how the game went, the statistics need to be examined very carefully. Factor in that in week one players are unduly nervous and unacclimated to the true game conditions, and it's easy to make the wrong read at this stage of the season. We'll pick through these match-ups with a fine-tooth comb, using various data sets:

1) Play-By-Play Ratings

When looking at NFL stats, you can't get more detailed than looking at the Play-By-Play level, which is what our friends at TwoMinuteWarning.com do in creating their unique Play-By-Play ratings. Let's take a glance at the predicted scores based on these PBP ratings for the week 2 games:

ANALYSIS: As can be seen from the historical results of these predicted scores in week 2, the overall record has been modest (as would be expected for a statistical approach based on only one game) with the notable exception of underdog plays, which have been 8-3 over the last two years. A quick pass then with these summary figures suggests the following "Dog" plays: Cleveland, San Francisco, Seattle, and Carolina.

2) Play-By-Play Rushing Detail

While the snapshot of the predicted scores may be very powerful later in the season, we wouldn't want to trust it too much at this stage since it's obvious that teams that did well in week one get blown out of proportion to look like champions, while those struggling look like they'd have a tough time beating ca college team. All NFL teams have good and bad games so to judge them on one performance is ridiculous -- plus the numbers above do not balance for home/away, strength of schedule and other important aspects.

What we do try at this point is to break down the stats a little bit more. We have found that in previous years focusing on the early rushing performance of teams gives a great insight into how quickly the respective offensive and defensive lines are jelling together.

ANALYSIS: From this perspective the likely stronger rushing teams include several underdogs -- Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, Dallas, and Tennessee. In addition some of the favorites are forecast to have very large advantages in the average yards per carry department: Atlanta +2.2, Minnesota +1.5, St. Louis +1.7, Denver +1.9, and Green Bay +4.5

3) Motivation Analysis

Our final handicapping tool this week is some motivational analysis:

• Tennessee at Jacksonville: Jags off to good start, Titans wk 1 losers in more ways than one: McNair ailing, George stuffed by Miami. Jacksonville been beaten by the Titans too often in the past, but won last year at home and will be out to make a statement. Jags at home next week too so no immediate travel concerns. Titans modest travel (800 miles) so shortish flight, but with injuries and bye week next, probably just looking to get through this week and regroup:
  Strong Pick Jacksonville -2.5
• St. Louis at San Francisco: long journey for the Rams to get to SF (2,000 miles) plus Cal-Bound flight. 49ers exuding quiet confidence after week one comeback win and are laying in wait for the Rams to arrive. St. Louis obvious championship contender, but sluggish perhaps for this with Bruce and Holt not shining in week one.
  Pick San Francisco +6.5
• New York Jets at New England: Perhaps the most emotionally charged game this week since it features a New York team versus an essentially Boston team so both places greatly effected by the tragedies. Jets figure to be more intent on winning one for the brave citizens of NY since team members have been interviewed incessantly. New York beat the Patriots both times in 2000 and are the much better team, IMHO.
  Pick New York Jets -2
• Oakland at Miami: Raiders flying coast to coast (3,000 miles) to face a tough Miami team out for revenge for last season's playoff ouster. Raiders lucky to escape with win from Kansas City in opener despite usual assortment of mishaps and may be reverting to Raiders of old: cocky, arrogant, super talented, mistake prone (10 penalties, 3 turnovers in week one). Miami too good a team to be loose against and should be ready here. Raiders likely to be asleep again early for this (10am west coast start)
  Strong Pick Miami -1.5
• Baltimore at Cincinnati: lightish travel for the Ravens (500 miles) to face Bengals. Truth be told the Raves won't be worrying about Cincy but will have their minds on the game at Denver Mile High next week. You do know to bet against last year's Super Bowl winner, don't you?
  Pick Cincinnati +7
• New York Giants at Kansas City: the other New York team and I'm consistent in my thinking that the G-Men come out with a fury unleashed. Sure it's 1,000+ miles of travel, but the Chiefs aren't going to be with the full Vermeil system for a few more weeks anyway. Think about how long it took the Rams to succeed under Dick and you'll know that an instant turnaround in KC ain't in the cards.
  Pick New York Giants +1.5
• Washington at Green Bay: can't find two more extreme teams: Green Bay looking great and ready to make another championship run, Redskins in complete utter, total disarray (funny how that happens around Jeff George so often) and last thing in the world they need is to be on Monday Night Football at Lambeau. Blowout of the week.
  Strong Pick Green Bay -8.5
• Philadelphia at Seattle: Eagles have a long (2,800 miles) cross-country trip for this non-conference clash. Holmgren can't be happy with the game against Seattle despite the win, and will have been on his troops to get with the program. Eagles may be thinking after the moral victory vs the Rams that they can turn it on when they need to and come in soft.
  Pick Seattle +2.5

4) FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK TWO