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Trends
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week two games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play.
Week 2 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
19 - 20 |
48 % |
20 - 22 |
47 % |
39 - 42 |
48 % |
| Win % Last Yr |
31 - 28 |
52 % |
31 - 26 |
54 % |
62 - 54 |
53 % |
| Spread % STD |
20 - 28 |
41 % |
18 - 20 |
47 % |
38 - 48 |
44 % |
| Spread % last Yr |
26 - 32 |
44 % |
31 - 30 |
50 % |
57 - 62 |
47 % |
| Points for last |
31 - 33 |
48 % |
39 - 31 |
55 % |
70 - 64 |
52 % |
| Points Allowed last |
37 - 35 |
51 % |
34 - 27 |
55 % |
71 - 62 |
53 % |
| Net Pts STD |
29 - 43 |
40 % |
29 - 36 |
44 % |
58 - 79 |
42 % |
| Net Pts Last Yr |
29 - 30 |
49 % |
32 - 29 |
52 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| Pts For STD |
31 - 33 |
48 % |
39 - 31 |
55 % |
70 - 64 |
52 % |
| Pts For Last Yr |
30 - 27 |
52 % |
34 - 26 |
56 % |
64 - 53 |
54 % |
| Pts Agn STD |
37 - 35 |
51 % |
34 - 27 |
55 % |
71 - 62 |
53 % |
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
26 - 27 |
49 % |
29 - 25 |
53 % |
55 - 52 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds STD |
36 - 30 |
54 % |
42 - 30 |
58 % |
78 - 60 |
56 % |
| Pass Yds STD |
39 - 29 |
57 % |
42 - 27 |
60 % |
81 - 56 |
59 % |
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
33 - 36 |
47 % |
36 - 33 |
52 % |
69 - 69 |
50 % |
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
35 - 34 |
50 % |
38 - 31 |
55 % |
73 - 65 |
52 % |
| Turnovers STD |
19 - 37 |
33 % |
24 - 31 |
43 % |
43 - 68 |
38 % |
| Forced Turnovers STD |
25 - 32 |
43 % |
29 - 30 |
49 % |
54 - 62 |
46 % |
| Net T/O STD |
31 - 29 |
51 % |
38 - 27 |
58 % |
69 - 56 |
55 % |
| Penalties Last Game |
35 - 29 |
54 % |
35 - 22 |
61 % |
70 - 51 |
57 % |
| Sacks OFF STD |
36 - 27 |
57 % |
38 - 27 |
58 % |
74 - 54 |
57 % |
| Sacks Def STD |
26 - 35 |
42 % |
27 - 30 |
47 % |
53 - 65 |
44 % |
| Punts STD |
31 - 31 |
50 % |
33 - 23 |
58 % |
64 - 54 |
54 % |
| First Downs STD |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
38 - 31 |
55 % |
70 - 61 |
53 % |
| First Downs Agn STD |
33 - 33 |
50 % |
34 - 29 |
53 % |
67 - 62 |
51 % |
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
33 - 31 |
51 % |
39 - 30 |
56 % |
72 - 61 |
54 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Allowed STD |
37 - 26 |
58 % |
42 - 26 |
61 % |
79 - 52 |
60 % |
| Time of Poss STD |
32 - 36 |
47 % |
36 - 34 |
51 % |
68 - 70 |
49 % |
| 1st Qtr Net STD |
28 - 27 |
50 % |
39 - 31 |
55 % |
67 - 58 |
53 % |
| 4th Down Conv Agn STD |
29 - 30 |
49 % |
37 - 30 |
55 % |
66 - 60 |
52 % |
There are a number of factors with some degree of predictive value over the last ten years. The big picture trends have been to go against better net points teams, go against teams with more offensive turnovers ("giveaways"), while favoring teams with better passing yards, more times being sacked, and teams which allowed a higher 3rd Down conversion rate to opponents.
There are some additional factors with home/away winning rates away from the norm, but of course dealing with small sample sizes requires caution before leaping to conclusions. We will concentrate on the "fabulous five" factors with reasonable total effectiveness: worse net points, fewer offensive turnovers, more passing yards, more times sacked, and higher 3rd down conversion rate allowed.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK TWO matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Comments |
Trend
Pick |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati |
7 |
BAL better in passing yds,
CIN gets nod in other areas |
CIN |
| Buffalo at Indianapolis |
-10 |
IND better in passing yds,
BUF gets 3 other categories |
BUF |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
-3.5 |
CAR better in passing,
ATL in 3 others |
ATL |
| Detroit at Cleveland |
1.5 |
DET wins all but fewer T/O |
DET |
| Minnesota at Chicago |
3 |
CHI wins 3 of 4
(MIN better passing) |
CHI |
| N.Y. Giants at Kansas City |
-1.5 |
NYG takes 4 of 5
(all but 3rd Down) |
NYG |
| N.Y. Jets at New England |
1.5 |
mixed NE 3, NYJ 2 |
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| Oakland at Miami |
-1.5 |
mixed OAK 3, MIA 2 |
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| Philadelphia at Seattle |
2.5 |
mixed 2 factors each |
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| St. Louis at San Francisco |
6.5 |
SF 3 to 1 |
SF |
| San Diego at Dallas |
3 |
DAL 3 to 1 |
DAL |
| Tennessee at Jacksonville |
-2.5 |
mixed, 3-2 TEN |
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| Denver at Arizona |
8 |
Arizona had bye |
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| Washington at Green Bay |
-8.5 |
mixed, 3-2 GB |
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ANALYSIS:
It's amazing how often the only factor pointing one way was passing yards, and there are no games where all the factors point either the same way or have no decision (the teams are tied in an area).
Of course it's not clear that a full consensus would be any better than a majority, but the above "picks" are based on a team having at least three factors in their favor, and no more than one opposing.
Week One Results: 3-1 with our lightly regarded "spread record home and away off a certain prior year number of wins" investigation. Indeed the only loser was the Jets, who as was mentioned were facing a less favorable situation than the others since their opponent's trend was also good.
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