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("Contrarian Bridgejumping") We reviewed the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method during the pre-season, so if you missed that you may want to read it first:
Please note that our follow-up research on the CSM plays revealed that while they were reasonably good overall during the 1983-2000 span we looked at, they had not done as well in the past four years, and as such we do not recommend backing them without other good evidence in 2001. Still, the stats are interesting in themselves and we will continue to provide the raw data. Calculating the "Cumulative Spread Margin" stats involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game. Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK THREE matchups:
ANALYSIS: Again, we don't recommend following the CSM plays this year, particularly in the early weeks. They are however a good measure of how well "contrarian players" are faring. In addition they are of course a representation of teams' past performance versus their perceived talent (under vs over achieving). So far this year the big over-achievers are Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The big underachievers are Washington, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Arizona, and Seattle. If there is one game in the above we think worth a look based on the CSM numbers, it's St. Louis over Miami. The Rams are six point favorites even though the Dolphins have a 2-0 record and a +8 CSM stat, while the Rams have a -1 CSM. When you find big underdogs with much better CSM records they are often good to go against.
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