As stated in our introduction, we are generally statistically-oriented handicappers. With week three since the current stats are only from one or two games it's too dependent on who you played and how the game went. It's easy to make the wrong read at this stage of the season. Don't worry, we'll pick through these match-ups with a fine-tooth comb, using various data sets:

1) Play-By-Play Ratings

When looking at NFL stats, you can't get more detailed than looking at the Play-By-Play level, which is what our friends at TwoMinuteWarning.com do in creating their unique Play-By-Play ratings. Let's take a glance at the predicted scores based on these PBP ratings for the week 3 games:

ANALYSIS: Later in the season it's key to go only for those games with a 4+ Line Difference between the play-by-play pick and the real line. In week 3 the predicted scores can seem very one sided since teams are being rated on only 1 or 2 games. With the exception of Buffalo and Miami, all the teams picked to cover are the favorites. This makes sense when you think about it. The teams winning in the first weeks will have better stats and will be predicted to win big.

2) Ultimate Prediction Machine

Another great handicapping tool put out by the TwoMinuteWarning guys is their "Ultimate Prediction Machine". We'll let them describe it:

"The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup two-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering."

ANALYSIS: Like the Play-By-PLay predicted scores, only having one or two games skews the stats a lot. For instance you won't see an 87% confidence rating in later weeks, but since New Orleans only played one game and won easy they look like Super Bowl Champions right now on a stats basis. Later in the year we fully trust the 60% or better rated picks. For week 3, we'll note them and keep going: Atlanta, Denver, Cleveland, Green Bay, Kansas City, Miami, and New Orleans.

3) Trends

Tracking how all kinds of stats are doing is a real pain if you are doing it yourself manually. One of the great things about computers is they can spew out all kinds of stuff in seconds that would take hours and days for a person. Let's check in with the week three stat trends:

The following table lists the nine most predictive statistical factors based on the results against the spread when playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category.

For the data above the factors win light green are positive factors (play the team with the higher numbers), the dark green are negative factors (play the team with the lower numbers). Now we'll see which teams have the edge in week three:

The Trends make a call in ten of the fourteen games this week. We like to see a bit more than a 3:1 edge, so Atlanta, Denver, San Diego, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, and San Francisco qualify for us.

4) Motivation Analysis

Our final handicapping tool this week is some motivational analysis:

• Seattle at Oakland: Raiders got the wake-up call last week. They lost but it may wind up helping them in the long run. They should realize now that nothing comes so easy in the NFL the second time around. Seahawks handed them one of their few losses last season, but Holmgren's team looked terrible against the Eagles. Serious character issues in Seattle.
  Pick Oakland -10.5
• Cleveland at Jacksonville: Browns playing first away game, while Jags in this weird season are playing their third straight at home. Taylor hurting once again, but Stacey Mack can be like a Mack truck on Sunday and plough over Cleveland defenders. Tennessee down, Baltimore down...Jags can take control! Oh yeah, won this game last year 48-0.
  Pick Jacksonville -8
• Kansas City at Washington: This will be Marty Schottenheimer's first game against his old team...funny that he has another crusty old NFL coach in Vermeil on the opposite sideline. Marty's been gone a while so won't have quite the inside advantage that Norv Turner did in week one against Wash. Also will be the first game at home for the Redskins this year, and the first game away for the Chiefs. Nation's capital needs some good news and a Washington win would be a step in the right direction. Cancer surgery successful (Jeff George gone) and Redskins should feel up to redeeming themselves. All eyes on Kurt Schottenheimer, Marty's brother, who as the defensive coordinator for Washington has a lot to answer for in the first two weeks. Gameplan: give ball to Steven Davis and get physical.
  Strong Pick Washington +3.5
• Cincinnati at San Diego: Chargers are for real! (and I'm not just saying that cause I'm from SD) Cincy on their first roadtrip of the season, traveling 2,200 miles cal-bound. Chargers defense can stuff Dillon. San Diego is looking to run the table in the first half of the season: Cin, @Cle, @NE, Den, Buf, KC makes for a nice 7-1 record as I see it.
  Pick San Diego -6.5
• Pittsburgh at Buffalo: Steelers off since the opening week loss to the Jags. Sure they've had lots of time to prep for Bills. one question though: how much time do you want/need to spend watching Buffalo game film? Pittsburgh should be stale and would have benefitted from coming back straight away.
  Pick Buffalo +3
• New Orleans at New York Giants: Saints are another stale team, sitting on the shelf since week 1. Trust me, no team wants to play in New York right now. Giants have big emotional edge and are playing for their devestated city. G-Men at home for next two and ready to repeat statement they made last year to Saints in playoffs: sit down!
  Pick New York Giants -3
• San Francisco at New York Jets: SF traveling the 3,000 miles from coast to coast and get flyover of NYC when they arrive. First away game for SF and they should be extra edgy playing on the extra rowdy Monday Night. Making things tougher for the Niners is that they play Carolina the next week. You may not realize how big a rival the Panthers are: ex-SF coach Seifert always makes Mariucci feel extra need to win: both pre-Carolina games in 2000 were losses. Jets on the other hand can relax and play well now they are home with a win.
  Strong Pick New York Jets -3

5) FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK THREE