Week 4 will see the arrival of a new subscriber column: Inside the 20, which will look at the upcoming games and make predictions based on the red zone performance of teams. Beginning next week (week 5) we will produce several additional data features, including the Ultimate Prediction Machine "money-line" and "totals" versions, as well as adding additional commentary.

Week Three Wrap-Up

Peter's Quick-Picks were a disappointing 7-7, but still stand at an impressive 25-16 on the year. The straight-up quick picks did win comfortably with the top two selections for those playing elimination pools, but were a poor 7-7 overall and are now 29-14 on the season. We tell people to be cautious in using the statistics and ratings we produce this early in the season, and the performance was certainly mixed in week three: Overlays: the Drive Chart overlays went 6-7 overall, and 2-3 with the five largest overlay picks. The Play-By-Play overlays were 6-8 overall, and 3-2 with the five biggest. Ultimate Prediction Machine: the "UPM" was decent again in the early going, finishing at 4-3 with the 60%+ confidence games. As far as the commentary features went: Trends: The trends report continues to shine, with a fine 7-3 record to produce a third straight winning week (Trends picks are now 15-7 season-to-date). Look for Scott's write-up on the significant week four factors this Friday. GF Report: The GF Team also posted a third consecutive winning week, behind solid 2-unit plays that went 2-1 (now 8-2 from week one on). Overall the results were 3-2 for +1.7 units. Turnovers: The turnover column redeemed itself somewhat, hitting with the only key play as Baltimore won. Overall the T/O picks were 6-4. CSM: The Cumulative Spread Margin plays, another contrarian approach, finished at 5-6 overall, although key play St. Louis was a runaway winner. Please note that we have in our research shown that the CSM plays have been poor bets overall the last four years, but we will continue to produce the numbers since they are interesting data points in themselves. Motivation: plans to rename the site "Jerry's Motivational Page" are on hold after Jerry's plays for the week went 3-4, but he still has a fantastic 10-4 record thus far. Meanwhile longtime favorite Teri had a split week, winning one and losing one, and is 3-2 on the year. Angles: The angles page did strike with the "revenge failure" play of the Ravens over the Broncos, but was only 1-2 all told and now stands at 4-4 for the season. Given our statistical emphasis, week four will mark the last appearance of the Angles column for this season, although we will continue to provide cutting edge research. Teasers: Finally the teaser picks lost both the 2-teamer and 3-teamer when the Jags were upset by the Browns, but will look to get back on track with the week four match-ups.