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Turnovers
"The answer is clearly "NO" there isn't any predictive value to the week one turnovers in attempting to forecast second games of the season."
Yes, I wrote those words (corrected for typos). Looking back on the ugliness that was last week's turnover column, it's obvious I went astray in trying too hard to find something to write about when the basic point was: turnovers do not tell you much after one game. With this in mind the turnover column will be short and sweet until we reach week 5 at which point things look brighter.
A quick query on the turnover success rate in week three games over the years shows:
- All Turnovers: 120-104 (53.5%)
- Net Fumbles: 113-94 (54.6%)
- Net Interceptions: 107-103 (50.9%)
For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
- Turnover Difference Revisited
- Turnovers: Fumbles vs Interceptions
Now let's turn to the week three games:
All numbers represent season totals, not per game
(shown as away minus home)
| Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
T/O Play |
| Atlanta |
3 |
Arizona |
1 |
2 |
3 |
ARI |
| Baltimore |
-4 |
Denver |
-2 |
-6 |
-8 |
BAL |
| Cincinnati |
-6.5 |
San Diego |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
| Cleveland |
-8 |
Jacksonville |
4 |
0 |
4 |
JAX |
| Green Bay |
3.5 |
Carolina |
1 |
-1 |
0 |
|
| Indianapolis |
10 |
New England |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
|
| Kansas City |
3 |
Washington |
2 |
2 |
4 |
WAS |
| Miami |
-6 |
St. Louis |
2 |
-2 |
0 |
|
| New Orleans |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
5 |
0 |
5 |
NYG |
| Pittsburgh |
3 |
Buffalo |
0 |
-3 |
-3 |
PIT |
| Seattle |
-10.5 |
Oakland |
-3 |
0 |
-3 |
SEA |
| Tampa Bay |
2.5 |
Minnesota |
2 |
3 |
5 |
MIN |
| Dallas |
-13.5 |
Philadelphia |
5 |
-1 |
4 |
PHI |
| San Francisco |
-3 |
N.Y. Jets |
-5 |
1 |
-4 |
SF |
ANALYSIS: There you have the full list of plays (remember, it's only been a 53.5% proposition).
Only one game catches my eye as being worth key play status: Baltimore +4. The Ravens are -5 in net turnovers on the year by virtue (or perhaps vice) of having lost five fumbles already. The Broncos have a +3 net turnover stat so far and have yet to record a giveaway...
Season-To-Date Results:
All Plays: 8-13
Key Plays: 1-1
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Last week: 1-8 using the manufactured angles, and even though I said to only use the picks if you agreed with them for other reasons, the record stands...lesson learned: if the research tells you something hasn't been helpful overall, don't waste time trying to dig deeper! (no key plays last week)
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