Trends
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week three games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play.
Week 3 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
22 - 15 |
59 % |
21 - 9 |
70 % |
43 - 24 |
64 % |
| Win % Last Yr |
30 - 35 |
46 % |
24 - 17 |
58 % |
54 - 52 |
50 % |
| Win Last |
19 - 10 |
65 % |
20 - 7 |
74 % |
39 - 17 |
69 % |
| Win 2 Games Ago |
11 - 18 |
37 % |
15 - 11 |
57 % |
26 - 29 |
47 % |
| Spread % STD |
20 - 21 |
48 % |
18 - 18 |
50 % |
38 - 39 |
49 % |
| Spread % last Yr |
30 - 30 |
50 % |
23 - 20 |
53 % |
53 - 50 |
51 % |
| vs Spread last |
19 - 17 |
52 % |
17 - 13 |
56 % |
36 - 30 |
54 % |
| vs Spread 2 back |
10 - 16 |
38 % |
11 - 16 |
40 % |
21 - 32 |
39 % |
| Points for last |
37 - 28 |
56 % |
36 - 21 |
63 % |
73 - 49 |
59 % |
| Points Allowed last |
29 - 27 |
51 % |
35 - 32 |
52 % |
64 - 59 |
52 % |
| Net Pts STD |
34 - 32 |
51 % |
33 - 25 |
56 % |
67 - 57 |
54 % |
| Net Pts Last Yr |
28 - 35 |
44 % |
23 - 20 |
53 % |
51 - 55 |
48 % |
| Net Pts Last |
33 - 29 |
53 % |
37 - 25 |
59 % |
70 - 54 |
56 % |
| Net Pts 2 back |
34 - 34 |
50 % |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
65 - 61 |
51 % |
| Pts For STD |
36 - 30 |
54 % |
36 - 22 |
62 % |
72 - 52 |
58 % |
| Pts For Last Yr |
34 - 30 |
53 % |
29 - 17 |
63 % |
63 - 47 |
57 % |
| Pts Agn STD |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
34 - 28 |
54 % |
66 - 56 |
54 % |
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
19 - 28 |
40 % |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
51 - 56 |
47 % |
| Total Pts STD |
36 - 31 |
53 % |
33 - 24 |
57 % |
69 - 55 |
55 % |
| Total Pts Last Game |
25 - 27 |
48 % |
32 - 23 |
58 % |
57 - 50 |
53 % |
| Rush Yds STD |
38 - 37 |
50 % |
29 - 22 |
56 % |
67 - 59 |
53 % |
| Rush Yds Last Game |
37 - 32 |
53 % |
33 - 24 |
57 % |
70 - 56 |
55 % |
| Rush Yds 2 back |
23 - 38 |
37 % |
28 - 38 |
42 % |
51 - 76 |
40 % |
| Pass Yds STD |
38 - 32 |
54 % |
34 - 23 |
59 % |
72 - 55 |
56 % |
| Pass Yds Last game |
32 - 27 |
54 % |
39 - 29 |
57 % |
71 - 56 |
55 % |
| Pass Yds 2 back |
29 - 38 |
43 % |
28 - 32 |
46 % |
57 - 70 |
44 % |
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
26 - 21 |
55 % |
44 - 35 |
55 % |
70 - 56 |
55 % |
| Rush Yds Agn L Game |
26 - 28 |
48 % |
38 - 35 |
52 % |
64 - 63 |
50 % |
| Rush Yds Agn 2 back |
29 - 28 |
50 % |
38 - 32 |
54 % |
67 - 60 |
52 % |
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
34 - 28 |
54 % |
37 - 27 |
57 % |
71 - 55 |
56 % |
| Pass Yds Agn L Game |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
35 - 29 |
54 % |
67 - 59 |
53 % |
| Pass Yds Agn 2 Back |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
36 - 29 |
55 % |
68 - 59 |
53 % |
| Turnovers STD |
26 - 28 |
48 % |
32 - 26 |
55 % |
58 - 54 |
51 % |
| Turnovers L Game |
21 - 27 |
43 % |
27 - 28 |
49 % |
48 - 55 |
46 % |
| Forced Turnovers STD |
31 - 28 |
52 % |
27 - 27 |
50 % |
58 - 55 |
51 % |
| Forced Turnovers L Game |
27 - 20 |
57 % |
29 - 24 |
54 % |
56 - 44 |
56 % |
| Net T/O L Game |
27 - 19 |
58 % |
32 - 26 |
55 % |
59 - 45 |
56 % |
| Net T/O STD |
30 - 35 |
46 % |
28 - 27 |
50 % |
58 - 62 |
48 % |
| Penalties STD |
34 - 36 |
48 % |
23 - 24 |
48 % |
57 - 60 |
48 % |
| Penalties L Game |
28 - 35 |
44 % |
28 - 26 |
51 % |
56 - 61 |
47 % |
| Sacks OFF STD |
25 - 28 |
47 % |
29 - 28 |
50 % |
54 - 56 |
49 % |
| Sacks OFF L Game |
22 - 27 |
44 % |
27 - 29 |
48 % |
49 - 56 |
46 % |
| Sacks Def STD |
26 - 25 |
50 % |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
58 - 53 |
52 % |
| Sacks Def L Game |
33 - 22 |
60 % |
29 - 22 |
56 % |
62 - 44 |
58 % |
| Punts STD |
22 - 39 |
36 % |
26 - 29 |
47 % |
48 - 68 |
41 % |
| Punts L Game |
22 - 34 |
39 % |
21 - 34 |
38 % |
43 - 68 |
38 % |
| First Downs STD |
26 - 33 |
44 % |
25 - 29 |
46 % |
51 - 62 |
45 % |
| First Downs L Game |
36 - 34 |
51 % |
29 - 23 |
55 % |
65 - 57 |
53 % |
| First Downs Agn STD |
30 - 26 |
53 % |
37 - 24 |
60 % |
67 - 50 |
57 % |
| First Downs Agn L Game |
27 - 29 |
48 % |
33 - 27 |
55 % |
60 - 56 |
51 % |
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
40 - 33 |
54 % |
32 - 19 |
62 % |
72 - 52 |
58 % |
| 3rd Down Conv L Game |
34 - 35 |
49 % |
29 - 22 |
56 % |
63 - 57 |
52 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn STD |
23 - 25 |
47 % |
37 - 33 |
52 % |
60 - 58 |
50 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game |
28 - 29 |
49 % |
35 - 29 |
54 % |
63 - 58 |
52 % |
| Time of Poss STD |
35 - 37 |
48 % |
28 - 26 |
51 % |
63 - 63 |
50 % |
| Time of Poss L Game |
39 - 30 |
56 % |
35 - 22 |
61 % |
74 - 52 |
58 % |
| 1st Qtr Net L Game |
34 - 34 |
50 % |
25 - 21 |
54 % |
59 - 55 |
51 % |
| 4th Down Conv Agn L Game |
24 - 23 |
51 % |
41 - 30 |
57 % |
65 - 53 |
55 % |
For the data above the factors where home or away results were 60%+ are light green (57%+ for all plays), and the factors where home/away results were 40% or worse are dark green.
As is usually the case when dealing with small sample sizes, there have historically been a number of areas with results some ways from the norm. We will put together the following list of factors to examine for this week's games:
It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the "nebulous nine" factors with reasonable total effectiveness.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK THREE matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Nine Factor
Scorecard |
Trend
Pick |
| Atlanta at Arizona |
3 |
Atlanta 7-0 |
Atlanta |
| Baltimore at Denver |
-4 |
Denver 7-1 |
Denver |
| Cincinnati at San Diego |
-6.5 |
San Diego 5-1 |
San Diego |
| Cleveland at Jacksonville |
-8 |
Jacksonville 4-3 |
|
| Green Bay at Carolina |
3.5 |
Green Bay 6-2 |
Green Bay |
| Indianapolis at New England |
10 |
Indianapolis 5-4 |
|
| Kansas City at Washington |
3 |
Kansas City 5-1 |
Kansas City |
| Miami at St. Louis |
-6 |
St. Louis 4-1 |
St. Louis |
| New Orleans at N.Y. Giants |
-3 |
New Orleans 4-2 |
|
| Pittsburgh at Buffalo |
3 |
Buffalo 3-1 |
Buffalo |
| Seattle at Oakland |
-10.5 |
Oakland 4-3 |
|
| Tampa Bay at Minnesota |
2.5 |
Tampa Bay 5-1 |
Tampa Bay |
| Dallas at Philadelphia |
-13.5 |
Philadelphia 8-1 |
Philadelphia |
| San Francisco at N.Y. Jets |
-3 |
San Francisco 5-1 |
San Francisco |
ANALYSIS:
There are any number of ways you could decide whether something qualifies as a play or not, we elected to use the 3-1 ratio or better we abided by in the week 2 match-ups. Interestingly there is one team this week (Atlanta) with all the factors either in their favor or equal...our first genuine "consensus" play of the year! Of course, it may not be any more advantageous to have many factors on your side then just a few.
Season-To-Date Results:
All Plays: 8-4
|
|
Last week: 5-3 using the "fabulous five" trend factors.
Archive
Week 2 Trends
Week 1 Trends
|
| 