|
|
||
|
|
|
Please Note: The GF Report is put together by some of the TMW gamecharters who utilize various pieces of the TwoMinuteWarning data while providing their own analysis and interpretation.
you'll think the games were fixed!"
Welcome to the GAMEFIXERS pro picks page -- thanks for stopping by. We are a group of skilled, veteran NFL Handicappers with sophisticated methods to help give you the edge in your 2001 Pro Football betting. Our philosophy towards sports betting is that we believe in the numbers. While technical and situational analysis has its place, in general our process hinges on getting access to the most accurate statistical data available to assess the games properly. With our well-connected status among top sports gambling information providers, we are able to get our hands on just what we need!
We are always happy to hear from our clients -- send comments to:
Gamefixers@hotmail.com
Week Four PlaysAs stated in our introduction, we are generally statistically-oriented handicappers. With week four you're getting to the point where the stats matter, but there are still some teams that have only played two games or who have very unbalanced home/away schedules. We'll examine the numbers in detail, and add in a little GF Perspective.
1) Play-By-Play RatingsWhen looking at NFL stats, you can't get more detailed than looking at the Play-By-Play level, which is what our friends at TwoMinuteWarning.com do in creating their unique Play-By-Play ratings. Let's take a glance at the predicted scores based on these PBP ratings for the week 4 games:
ANALYSIS: Later in the season it's key to go only for those games with a 4+ Line Difference between the play-by-play pick and the real line. In week 4 you still get too many one sided predicted scores. Four of the overlay picks are underdogs, including Green Bay, New England, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. In the additional games where both teams have played three times the picks are San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, New Orleans, Jacksonville, New York Giants, and New York Jets.
2) Ultimate Prediction MachineAnother great handicapping tool put out by the TwoMinuteWarning guys is their "Ultimate Prediction Machine". We'll let them describe it: "The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup two-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering."
ANALYSIS: Like the Play-By-Play predicted scores, only having two or three games played skews the stats a lot. You won't typically have as many high confidence value picks as we do this week and you won't see an 85% confidence rating in later weeks! Later in the year we fully trust the 60% or better rated picks. For week 4, we'll note them and keep going: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, New England, New York Jets, Baltimore, and the New York Giants.
3) Red Zone PredictionsTwoMinuteWarning just started up a new feature which only uses a team's performance in the red zone to predict their upcoming performance. Whether this approach works well remains to be seen, but here's the first publication of the Red Zone Drive Chart numbers:
ANALYSIS: These predicted scores look closer to reality, and have a higher proportion of underdogs selected. Among the dogs with 4+ overlays are Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay.
4) TrendsTracking how all kinds of stats are doing is a real pain if you are doing it yourself manually. One of the great things about computers is they can spew out all kinds of stuff in seconds that would take hours and days for a person. Let's check in with the week four stat trends: The following table lists the six most predictive statistical factors based on the results against the spread when playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category.
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
ANALYSIS: For the data above the factors win light green are positive factors (play the team with the higher numbers), the dark green are negative factors (play the team with the lower numbers). As Johnny Carson would say, "that's some really weird stuff"...the rushing yards/passing yards factors make some sense, but messing around with offensive sacks, times punted and 4th quarter net seems a little obscure. The statistic with the most pronounced record was the 4th Q net points, where home teams with better numbers in the previous game have only covered 29% of the time in week four match-ups. Rather than plug all the factors in for this week, we'll just note the away teams with worse 4th Q nets: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Minnesota, San Diego, Tennessee, Washington, and Carolina.
5) Motivation AnalysisOur final handicapping tool this week is some motivational analysis:
6) FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK FOUR
we list the casino at which we found it As our good friend Rick Needham says, "bet with your head, not over it!" ***
Archive File: Week 2 GF Report
[GameFixers Report for Week 1 was NOT POSTED on TwoMinuteWarning |