|
|
Turnover Report
A quick query on the turnover success rate in week four games over the years shows:
- All Turnovers: 83-94 (46.9%)
- Net Fumbles: 70-82 (46.1%)
- Net Interceptions: 77-81 (48.7%)
What the above means is that there is NO HISTORIC PREDICTIVE VALUE to the turnover difference theory in week 4 games. For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
We're almost at week five when the turnover plays really turn on and do have predictive value. Let's see if there's anything to play here in week four:
All numbers represent season totals, not per game
(shown as away minus home)
| Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
| Arizona |
-14.5 |
Philadelphia |
-6 |
-2 |
-8 |
| Chicago |
-3.5 |
Atlanta |
-6 |
+3 |
-3 |
| Cincinnati |
-5 |
Pittsburgh |
1 |
1 |
2 |
| Dallas |
-18.5 |
Oakland |
-8 |
-3 |
-11 |
| Green Bay |
-2.5 |
Tampa Bay |
-1 |
4 |
3 |
| Jacksonville |
3.5 |
Seattle |
3 |
3 |
6 |
| Kansas City |
-10 |
Denver |
3 |
-1 |
2 |
| Minnesota |
-3.5 |
New Orleans |
-4 |
-4 |
-8 |
| New England |
-9.5 |
Miami |
2 |
4 |
6 |
| N.Y. Jets |
4.5 |
Buffalo |
7 |
2 |
9 |
| San Diego |
3 |
Cleveland |
-1 |
4 |
3 |
| Tennessee |
-3.5 |
Baltimore |
-3 |
7 |
4 |
| Washington |
-14 |
N.Y. Giants |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
| Carolina |
-6.5 |
San Francisco |
5 |
-2 |
3 |
| St. Louis |
13 |
Detroit |
8 |
2 |
10 |
ANALYSIS:
There you have the stats. The one oddity in the week four history is that teams with the worse net turnover number that are home favorites have been lousy plays. Fluke or true trend? Who knows. Several home favorites in this week's games have the worse turnovers coming in: Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Denver, Miami, Baltimore and San Francisco. (The Steelers and Broncos barely qualify).
Going against two of the above gives us a couple of key plays: Green Bay +2.5, and New England +9.5. The Packers come in on a roll and are +4 in net fumbles with five fumbles recovered by the defense. With Dunn out due to injury the Bucs "running back by committee" seems a setup for the Packers to add more forced fumbles to their season total (and Alstott always seems vulnerable to being stripped). As for the Dolphins, they took a beating last week against the Rams and have only managed three takeaways on defense. Since no one would rate the Dolphins as a powerhouse offensively they rely too much on the defense making plays.
|
