Trends
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week four games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play.
Week 4 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
20 - 20 |
50 % |
24 - 17 |
58 % |
44 - 37 |
54 % |
|
| Win % Last Yr |
23 - 32 |
41 % |
27 - 22 |
55 % |
50 - 54 |
48 % |
|
| Win Last |
9 - 12 |
42 % |
20 - 12 |
62 % |
29 - 24 |
54 % |
|
| Win 2 Games Ago |
13 - 15 |
46 % |
19 - 10 |
65 % |
32 - 25 |
56 % |
|
| Spread % STD |
18 - 23 |
43 % |
27 - 19 |
58 % |
45 - 42 |
51 % |
|
| Spread % last Yr |
21 - 26 |
44 % |
29 - 22 |
56 % |
50 - 48 |
51 % |
|
| vs Spread last |
12 - 14 |
46 % |
19 - 13 |
59 % |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
|
| vs Spread 2 back |
14 - 17 |
45 % |
19 - 11 |
63 % |
33 - 28 |
54 % |
|
| Points for last |
24 - 28 |
46 % |
34 - 26 |
56 % |
58 - 54 |
51 % |
|
| Points Allowed last |
24 - 32 |
42 % |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
56 - 60 |
48 % |
|
| Net Pts STD |
24 - 35 |
40 % |
31 - 25 |
55 % |
55 - 60 |
47 % |
|
| Net Pts Last Yr |
21 - 29 |
42 % |
27 - 23 |
54 % |
48 - 52 |
48 % |
|
| Net Pts Last |
20 - 33 |
37 % |
33 - 29 |
53 % |
53 - 62 |
46 % |
|
| Net Pts 2 back |
28 - 35 |
44 % |
31 - 23 |
57 % |
59 - 58 |
50 % |
|
| Pts For STD |
22 - 28 |
44 % |
38 - 29 |
56 % |
60 - 57 |
51 % |
|
| Pts For Last Yr |
20 - 28 |
41 % |
31 - 23 |
57 % |
51 - 51 |
50 % |
|
| Pts Agn STD |
20 - 31 |
39 % |
33 - 30 |
52 % |
53 - 61 |
46 % |
|
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
19 - 21 |
47 % |
31 - 24 |
56 % |
50 - 45 |
52 % |
|
| Total Pts STD |
22 - 31 |
41 % |
34 - 30 |
53 % |
56 - 61 |
47 % |
|
| Total Pts Last Game |
18 - 28 |
39 % |
27 - 27 |
50 % |
45 - 55 |
45 % |
|
| Rush Yds STD |
26 - 32 |
44 % |
34 - 27 |
55 % |
60 - 59 |
50 % |
|
| Rush Yds Last Game |
33 - 31 |
51 % |
36 - 20 |
64 % |
69 - 51 |
57 % |
|
| Rush Yds 2 back |
23 - 37 |
38 % |
30 - 30 |
50 % |
53 - 67 |
44 % |
|
| Pass Yds STD |
23 - 28 |
45 % |
39 - 30 |
56 % |
62 - 58 |
51 % |
|
| Pass Yds Last game |
16 - 35 |
31 % |
32 - 37 |
46 % |
48 - 72 |
40 % |
|
| Pass Yds 2 back |
29 - 28 |
50 % |
39 - 24 |
61 % |
68 - 52 |
56 % |
|
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
27 - 35 |
43 % |
32 - 23 |
58 % |
59 - 58 |
50 % |
|
| Rush Yds Agn L Game |
26 - 41 |
38 % |
26 - 27 |
49 % |
52 - 68 |
43 % |
|
| Rush Yds Agn 2 back |
24 - 26 |
48 % |
40 - 28 |
58 % |
64 - 54 |
54 % |
|
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
38 - 21 |
64 % |
70 - 49 |
58 % |
|
| Pass Yds Allowed Last Game |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
40 - 22 |
64 % |
71 - 49 |
59 % |
|
| Pass Yds Agn 2 Back |
29 - 31 |
48 % |
35 - 24 |
59 % |
64 - 55 |
53 % |
|
| Turnovers STD |
25 - 30 |
45 % |
31 - 23 |
57 % |
56 - 53 |
51 % |
|
| Turnovers L Game |
24 - 29 |
45 % |
26 - 16 |
61 % |
50 - 45 |
52 % |
|
| Forced Turnovers STD |
26 - 28 |
48 % |
30 - 21 |
58 % |
56 - 49 |
53 % |
|
| Forced Turnovers L Game |
18 - 32 |
36 % |
26 - 21 |
55 % |
44 - 53 |
45 % |
|
| Net T/O L Game |
21 - 27 |
43 % |
27 - 27 |
50 % |
48 - 54 |
47 % |
|
| Net T/O STD |
22 - 29 |
43 % |
33 - 28 |
54 % |
55 - 57 |
49 % |
|
| Penalties STD |
30 - 36 |
45 % |
27 - 20 |
57 % |
57 - 56 |
50 % |
|
| Penalties L Game |
28 - 30 |
48 % |
32 - 19 |
62 % |
60 - 49 |
55 % |
|
| Sacks OFF STD |
28 - 32 |
46 % |
32 - 21 |
60 % |
60 - 53 |
53 % |
|
| Sacks OFF L Game |
24 - 23 |
51 % |
36 - 22 |
62 % |
60 - 45 |
57 % |
|
| Sacks Def STD |
33 - 31 |
51 % |
28 - 20 |
58 % |
61 - 51 |
54 % |
|
| Sacks Def L Game |
25 - 31 |
44 % |
26 - 23 |
53 % |
51 - 54 |
48 % |
|
| Punts STD |
28 - 27 |
50 % |
34 - 19 |
64 % |
62 - 46 |
57 % |
|
| Punts L Game |
23 - 24 |
48 % |
31 - 16 |
65 % |
54 - 40 |
57 % |
|
| First Downs STD |
19 - 30 |
38 % |
29 - 27 |
51 % |
48 - 57 |
45 % |
|
| First Downs L Game |
18 - 32 |
36 % |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
50 - 62 |
44 % |
|
| First Downs Agn STD |
24 - 24 |
50 % |
36 - 22 |
62 % |
60 - 46 |
56 % |
|
| First Downs Agn L Game |
25 - 37 |
40 % |
30 - 24 |
55 % |
55 - 61 |
47 % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
24 - 33 |
42 % |
33 - 27 |
55 % |
57 - 60 |
48 % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv L Game |
16 - 31 |
34 % |
35 - 33 |
51 % |
51 - 64 |
44 % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv Agn STD |
24 - 36 |
40 % |
31 - 28 |
52 % |
55 - 64 |
46 % |
|
| 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game |
26 - 32 |
44 % |
33 - 26 |
55 % |
59 - 58 |
50 % |
|
| Time of Poss STD |
27 - 32 |
45 % |
34 - 25 |
57 % |
61 - 57 |
51 % |
|
| Time of Poss L Game |
24 - 30 |
44 % |
37 - 29 |
56 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
|
| 1st Qtr Net L Game |
24 - 25 |
48 % |
33 - 23 |
58 % |
57 - 48 |
54 % |
|
| 4th Qtr Net L Game |
16 - 39 |
29 % |
25 - 31 |
44 % |
41 - 70 |
36 % |
|
This is what is known as a heavily skewed data sample. Evidently away teams have done very well historically in week four games and as a result most of the factors are positive for away teams and negative for home teams.
For the data above the factors where total results were 57%+ are light green and the factors where total results were 42% or worse are dark green. In cases where there are two very similar and dependent factors, we have selected one for highlighting.
The following list of factors represents those we view as having the most significant historical implications for this week's games:
It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the "sapient six" factors with reasonable total effectiveness.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK FOUR matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Six Factor
Scorecard |
Trend
Pick |
| Arizona at Philadelphia |
-14.5 |
Philadelphia 4-2 |
|
| Chicago at Atlanta |
-3.5 |
Atlanta 4-2 |
|
| Cincinnati at Pittsburgh |
-5 |
Pittsburgh 4-2 |
|
| Dallas at Oakland |
-18.5 |
Dallas 4-2 |
|
| Green Bay at Tampa Bay |
-2.5 |
Tampa Bay 5-1 |
(Tampa Bay) |
| Jacksonville at Seattle |
3.5 |
Jacksonville 4-2 |
|
| Kansas City at Denver |
-10 |
Denver 5-1 |
(Denver) |
| Minnesota at New Orleans |
-3.5 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
| New England at Miami |
-9.5 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
| N.Y. Jets at Buffalo |
4.5 |
Buffalo 4-2 |
|
| San Diego at Cleveland |
3 |
San Diego 4-2 |
|
| Tennessee at Baltimore |
-3.5 |
Tennessee 4-2 |
|
| Washington at N.Y. Giants |
-14 |
N.Y. Giants 4-2 |
|
| Carolina at San Francisco |
-6.5 |
Carolina 4-2 |
|
| St. Louis at Detroit |
13 |
Detroit 4-2 |
|
ANALYSIS:
There are any number of ways you could decide whether something qualifies as a play or not, we elected to use the 3-1 ratio or better we have abided by in the previous weeks. Amazingly there are only two games that meet these requirements, and in both cases a home team is selected. Given that the longterm trend has shown a strong favoritism for the away teams we are not willing to take a stand. Regrettably then there are no trend plays this week.
The factors we used were a strange bunch, awarding preference to teams that allowed more passing yards, were sacked more often, had a worse 4th quarter net, had fewer offensive passing yards, and punted more often! Only the rushing yards is a category normally associated with better performance. This possibly explains why the match-ups featured such close six factor scorecards.
| 