As stated in our introduction, we are generally statistically-oriented handicappers. We'll examine the numbers in detail, plus look at motivation and some trends.

1) Play-By-Play Ratings

When looking at NFL stats, you can't get more detailed than looking at the Play-By-Play level, which is what our friends at TwoMinuteWarning.com do in creating their unique Play-By-Play ratings. Let's take a glance at the predicted scores based on these PBP ratings for the week 5 games:

ANALYSIS: All the games cross the four point overlay threshold. This is a good starting point.

2) Ultimate Prediction Machine

Another great handicapping tool put out by the TwoMinuteWarning guys is their "Ultimate Prediction Machine." We'll let them describe it:

"The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup two-thousand times using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to the chances of each team covering."

ANALYSIS: We want to see at least 60% in the cover % column here and it's better if it's 65% or higher. Chicago, Green Bay, Cleveland, New York Jets, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Dallas are the ones to watch.

3) Trends

Tracking how all kinds of stats are doing is a real pain if you are doing it yourself manually. One of the great things about computers is they can spew out all kinds of stuff in seconds that would take hours and days for a person. Now we'll check in with the week five trends.

The following table lists the five most predictive statistical factors based on the results against the spread when playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category.

ANALYSIS: For the data above the factors win light green are positive factors (play the team with the higher numbers), the dark green are negative factors (play the team with the lower numbers). Here are the teams with the Trends edge in week five:

This gives us Green Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Indianapolis.

4) Motivation Analysis

Our final handicapping tool this week is some motivational analysis:

• Arizona at Chicago: Cardinals pulled off upset of the year in wiping the smile off Philly's face. I went down with the ship on that one and Eagles did take Cardinals too lightly. I stick with my guns though and look for the Bears to right the wrong done me last week. In 2000 Arizona won a grand total of three games. Each win was followed by a bad loss: 29-3, 33-14, 31-14. More of the same in store if I'm right.
  Pick Chicago -7
• Miami at New York Jets: This is becoming a bad blood match as the Jets have had the Dolphins number for quite some time. Curtis Martin looking good and remember last year they were talking up his chances of 2,000 yards rushing. Games are usually close but Jets come out ahead. Why they are getting a field goal at home is a mystery. They're 0-2 in NY/NJ for 2001 and I don't see them at 0-3 with all that's happened.
  Pick New York Jets +3
• New Orleans at Carolina: After week one win over Minnesota the common wisdom was the Panthers were an under-rated team. After three losses in a row the CW is they are a bad team. Seifert finally lost to Niners, as predicted, in the game that gets circled every year on the calender. Panthers off SF game have lost each time with Seifert. Saints too good for this bunch. Shop for the 4 1/2 line, it's out there.
  Strong Pick New Orleans -4.5
• San Francisco at Atlanta: The other side of the coin. 49ers also gear up for Carolina game and gear down right after. Four losses in four tries for SF following game vs ex-coach with margins of -17, -10, -26, and -6. 49ers lost in Atlanta in 2000, 1999, 1998...
  Strong Pick Atlanta +3
• Pittsburgh at Kansas City: Steelers never seem that good on paper but Cowher's team always in the picture. The week 2 postponement means Pitt opens the season with four of five on the road. Kansas City were ugly in Denver, and are 0-2 at home under Vermeil. Both losses to good teams though (Oakland, Giants) and they must make playing in KC like the Arrowhead of old to regain status.
  Pick Kansas City -2.5
• San Diego at New England: Chargers traveling coast-to-coast for this (3,000 miles) for second straight long haul after going 2,400 miles to Cleveland. One trip can be tough, back-to-back is exceedingly tough. Other issues include Denver game the next week which is the true test of how good San Diego is. Also not sure if SD really that good on the road: closer win than should've been against Dallas, and blown game against the Browns. Will Glenn provide boost to Patriots? At least we know he'll be all out. Hint he's in my fantasy starting lineup this week.
  Pick New England +3

5) FINAL PICKS FOR WEEK FIVE