Trends
In future weeks we will begin to discuss in-season trends for the NFL in 2001.
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week five games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play.
Week 5 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
17 - 20 |
45 % |
23 - 36 |
38 % |
40 - 56 |
41 % |
| Win % Last Yr |
25 - 21 |
54 % |
25 - 34 |
42 % |
50 - 55 |
47 % |
| Win Last |
17 - 11 |
60 % |
14 - 28 |
33 % |
31 - 39 |
44 % |
| Win 2 Games Ago |
14 - 15 |
48 % |
12 - 25 |
32 % |
26 - 40 |
39 % |
| Spread % STD |
27 - 18 |
60 % |
22 - 31 |
41 % |
49 - 49 |
50 % |
| Spread % last Yr |
27 - 25 |
51 % |
24 - 30 |
44 % |
51 - 55 |
48 % |
| vs Spread last |
17 - 14 |
54 % |
16 - 16 |
50 % |
33 - 30 |
52 % |
| vs Spread 2 back |
16 - 20 |
44 % |
8 - 21 |
27 % |
24 - 41 |
36 % |
| Points for last |
32 - 29 |
52 % |
22 - 39 |
36 % |
54 - 68 |
44 % |
| Points Allowed last |
36 - 32 |
52 % |
19 - 34 |
35 % |
55 - 66 |
45 % |
| Net Pts STD |
26 - 23 |
53 % |
29 - 42 |
40 % |
55 - 65 |
45 % |
| Net Pts Last Yr |
31 - 23 |
57 % |
24 - 28 |
46 % |
55 - 51 |
51 % |
| Net Pts Last |
30 - 29 |
50 % |
24 - 41 |
36 % |
54 - 70 |
43 % |
| Net Pts 2 back |
33 - 29 |
53 % |
24 - 36 |
40 % |
57 - 65 |
46 % |
| Pts For STD |
29 - 28 |
50 % |
23 - 38 |
37 % |
52 - 66 |
44 % |
| Pts For Last Yr |
27 - 23 |
54 % |
24 - 29 |
45 % |
51 - 52 |
49 % |
| Pts Agn STD |
45 - 28 |
61 % |
21 - 24 |
46 % |
66 - 52 |
55 % |
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
31 - 21 |
59 % |
26 - 26 |
50 % |
57 - 47 |
54 % |
| Total Pts STD |
31 - 31 |
50 % |
21 - 38 |
35 % |
52 - 69 |
42 % |
| Total Pts Last Game |
29 - 24 |
54 % |
24 - 26 |
48 % |
53 - 50 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds STD |
32 - 21 |
60 % |
31 - 38 |
44 % |
63 - 59 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds Last Game |
35 - 26 |
57 % |
27 - 36 |
42 % |
62 - 62 |
50 % |
| Rush Yds 2 back |
32 - 24 |
57 % |
27 - 39 |
40 % |
59 - 63 |
48 % |
| Pass Yds STD |
38 - 35 |
52 % |
17 - 32 |
34 % |
55 - 67 |
45 % |
| Pass Yds Last game |
36 - 34 |
51 % |
19 - 35 |
35 % |
55 - 69 |
44 % |
| Pass Yds 2 back |
36 - 31 |
53 % |
22 - 35 |
38 % |
58 - 66 |
46 % |
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
38 - 27 |
58 % |
25 - 32 |
43 % |
63 - 59 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds Agn L Game |
41 - 28 |
59 % |
25 - 30 |
45 % |
66 - 58 |
53 % |
| Rush Yds Agn 2 back |
40 - 28 |
58 % |
25 - 31 |
44 % |
65 - 59 |
52 % |
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
33 - 32 |
50 % |
20 - 37 |
35 % |
53 - 69 |
43 % |
| Pass Yds Agn L Game |
38 - 34 |
52 % |
19 - 33 |
36 % |
57 - 67 |
45 % |
| Pass Yds Agn 2 Back |
33 - 30 |
52 % |
23 - 38 |
37 % |
56 - 68 |
45 % |
| Turnovers STD |
36 - 25 |
59 % |
24 - 26 |
48 % |
60 - 51 |
54 % |
| Turnovers L Game |
38 - 20 |
65 % |
21 - 20 |
51 % |
59 - 40 |
59 % |
| Forced Turnovers STD |
30 - 23 |
56 % |
25 - 38 |
39 % |
55 - 61 |
47 % |
| Forced Turnovers L Game |
22 - 21 |
51 % |
19 - 35 |
35 % |
41 - 56 |
42 % |
| Net T/O L Game |
20 - 22 |
47 % |
25 - 42 |
37 % |
45 - 64 |
41 % |
| Net T/O STD |
26 - 24 |
52 % |
23 - 44 |
34 % |
49 - 68 |
41 % |
| Penalties STD |
34 - 26 |
56 % |
23 - 34 |
40 % |
57 - 60 |
48 % |
| Penalties L Game |
31 - 25 |
55 % |
18 - 30 |
37 % |
49 - 55 |
47 % |
| Sacks OFF STD |
33 - 21 |
61 % |
31 - 33 |
48 % |
64 - 54 |
54 % |
| Sacks OFF L Game |
30 - 22 |
57 % |
23 - 33 |
41 % |
53 - 55 |
49 % |
| Sacks Def STD |
32 - 21 |
60 % |
29 - 34 |
46 % |
61 - 55 |
52 % |
| Sacks Def L Game |
26 - 14 |
65 % |
32 - 29 |
52 % |
58 - 43 |
57 % |
| Punts STD |
30 - 18 |
62 % |
32 - 36 |
47 % |
62 - 54 |
53 % |
| Punts L Game |
29 - 18 |
61 % |
25 - 38 |
39 % |
54 - 56 |
49 % |
| First Downs STD |
37 - 27 |
57 % |
21 - 29 |
42 % |
58 - 56 |
50 % |
| First Downs L Game |
35 - 28 |
55 % |
22 - 32 |
40 % |
57 - 60 |
48 % |
| First Downs Agn STD |
39 - 34 |
53 % |
16 - 23 |
41 % |
55 - 57 |
49 % |
| First Downs Agn L Game |
39 - 28 |
58 % |
24 - 31 |
43 % |
63 - 59 |
51 % |
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
32 - 26 |
55 % |
26 - 38 |
40 % |
58 - 64 |
47 % |
| 3rd Down Conv L Game |
41 - 29 |
58 % |
21 - 27 |
43 % |
62 - 56 |
52 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn STD |
43 - 33 |
56 % |
20 - 25 |
44 % |
63 - 58 |
52 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game |
43 - 28 |
60 % |
25 - 25 |
50 % |
68 - 53 |
56 % |
| Time of Poss STD |
34 - 25 |
57 % |
27 - 37 |
42 % |
61 - 62 |
49 % |
| Time of Poss L Game |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
23 - 39 |
37 % |
55 - 69 |
44 % |
| 1st Qtr Net L Game |
21 - 29 |
42 % |
19 - 36 |
34 % |
40 - 65 |
38 % |
| 4th Down Net L Game |
30 - 23 |
56 % |
28 - 35 |
44 % |
58 - 58 |
50 % |
This is regrettably another dissatisfying set of trends data. There is a strong skew towards home teams doing well and away teams doing badly. Furthermore there are almost no factors with overall positive results.
For the data above the factors where total results were 57%+ are light green and the factors where total results were 41% or worse are dark green. In cases where there are two very similar and dependent factors, we have selected one for highlighting.
The following list of factors represents those we view as having the most significant historical implications for this week's games:
It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the "friendly five" factors with reasonable total effectiveness.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK FIVE matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Six Factor
Scorecard |
Trend
Pick |
| Arizona at Chicago |
-7 |
Chicago 3-2 |
|
| Baltimore at Green Bay |
+1 |
Green Bay 3-0 |
Green Bay |
| Cleveland at Cincinnati |
-2.5 |
Cincinnati 3-1 |
|
| Denver at Seattle |
+7 |
Tied 2-2 |
|
| Detroit at Minnesota |
-10 |
Detroit 4-0 |
Detroit |
| Miami at N.Y. Jets |
+3 |
Miami 3-1 |
|
| New Orleans at Carolina |
+5 |
Tied 2-2 |
|
| N.Y. Giants at St. Louis |
-10 |
N.Y. Giants 3-1 |
|
| Pittsburgh at Kansas City |
-2.5 |
Kansas City 3-0 |
Kansas City |
| San Diego at New England |
+3 |
New England 3-1 |
|
| San Francisco at Atlanta |
+3 |
Atlanta 2-0 |
|
| Tampa Bay at Tennessee |
-3 |
Tennessee 3-0 |
Tennessee |
| Oakland at Indianapolis |
-3.5 |
Indianapolis 3-0 |
Indianapolis |
| Washington at Dallas |
-2.5 |
Tied 1-1 |
|
ANALYSIS:
There are any number of ways you could decide whether something qualifies as a play or not. In past weeks we elected to use the 3-1 ratio or better, but this week we are upping the requirements to either 3-0 or better or 4-1. Several match-ups produce a pick, with four of the five being home teams.
| 