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The links on the left are for the actual pages posted in the subscriber section for the week six games.
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Week Six Wagering Wrap-Up
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A good week in many departments, with the underdogs taking command once again. Against the spread the dogs were an amazing 12-1 overall (St. Louis was the only favorite to cover) and an incredible 11-2 straight-up. We would not expect this underdog run to continue to this degree (22-3 against the line the past two weeks), but in the NFL dogs always deserve a second look.
Peter's Quick-Picks were 7-6 and are staying in the middle of the pack in your office pool at 42-38 on the year. The straight-up quick picks were knocked out of the elimination pool very convincingly and will no longer be posted. Those of you looking for straight-up guidance would be well served by focusing on the UPM Money-Line.
On the statistics and ratings side:
- Overlays: the Drive Charts went 6-4 with the 4+ overlays, while the Play-By-Play overlays finished at 5-5.
- Ultimate Prediction Machine: the "UPM" was 4-1 with the 65%+ confidence plays, and 9-4 overall.
- Money-Line: In a week of huge upsets, the UPM Money-Line took full advantage, going 6-0 for a +$1402 gain (net based on a $100 unit) with the large edge plays. The small edge plays (the team is listed in parentheses) were not so lucky, going 0-3 for -$401. Please note that we don't get reliable money lines until later in the week and so while the Tuesday post includes the predicted win percentages and fair value money line, the recommended plays appear once we get the M/Lines.
- Over/Unders: The totals overlays were 0-1 on the 4+ drive chart plays, and 1-2 on the 4+ play-by-play picks. The UPM over/under simulator continued to struggle, although the sole 65%+ play was a push. Given this is the first season for the UPM O/U we suggest caution with the output until we have seen performance for a few weeks.
As far as the commentary features went:
- Turnovers: The turnovers posted a nifty 5-0 record with the key plays, and are now 12-2 since hitting the magical week five stage (the key plays are 14-5 going back from week one on).
- CSM: The Cumulative Spread Margin plays, another contrarian approach, finished at 4-4 overall, although 0-1 with the key plays Please note that we have in our research shown that the CSM plays have been poor bets overall the last four years, but we will continue to produce the numbers, along with the over/under CSM, since they are interesting data in themselves and a good gauge of how contrarian the year is playing.
- Trends: The trends plays were 4-1 in week six and are 21-10 on the year. Scott will be taking a look at some in-season factors as this week, as well as gauging what historical biases there are for week seven match-ups.
- Motivation: The motivational duo was shut out, with Jerry going 0-3 (now 14-12 on the season) and Teri feeling blue at 0-2 (5-7 on the year).
- Inside the 20: The drive chart red zone predictions were 5-3 with the 4+ overlays, and are a respectable 12-7 from week five on. The play-by-play red zone predictions were 6-6 with the 4+ games.
- Teasers: With so many lopsided scores many teaser players were taking a bath. Rolling out a whole platter full of teaser bets, the nine highlighted teams were just 5-4 as teased plays. The selected combinations were soundly beaten to the tune of a 10.6 unit loss.
- GF Report: The GF Team went 3-2 with their two unit plays and 0-1 with the 1-unit game to wind up ahead by 1/2 unit for the week.
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