|
|
Teasers
Welcome to TwoMinuteWarning's teaser page!
A reader pointed out that the "Ultimate Prediction Machine" 65%+ confidence picks last week were 5-0 as six-point teasers, and 8-1 with the 55%+ picks. We have posted the teaser results from previous seasons, but have not done so for the UPM -- we will change that by posting them here!
Ulimate Prediction Machine 6-pt Teaser Cover Rates (2000)
| Category |
50 - 54% |
55 - 59% |
60 - 64% |
65 - 69% |
70 - 99% |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
23 - 3 |
8 - 5 |
4 - 2 |
3 - 0 |
3 - 1 |
41 - 11 |
| HomeDogs |
7 - 4 |
10 - 5 |
7 - 0 |
8 - 0 |
1 - 1 |
33 - 10 |
| AwayFavs |
6 - 3 |
7 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
17 - 3 |
| AwayDogs |
17 - 10 |
22 - 8 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
3 - 0 |
56 - 24 |
|
| Favorites |
29 - 6 |
15 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
3 - 0 |
4 - 1 |
58 - 14 |
| Underdogs |
24 - 14 |
32 - 13 |
15 - 4 |
14 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
89 - 34 |
| Home Teams |
30 - 7 |
18 - 10 |
11 - 2 |
11 - 0 |
4 - 2 |
74 - 21 |
| Away Teams |
23 - 13 |
29 - 8 |
11 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
73 - 27 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
53 - 20 |
47 - 18 |
22 - 6 |
17 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
147 - 48 |
| WIN % |
73 % |
72 % |
79 % |
89 % |
80 % |
75 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
5 - 2 |
23 - 5 |
30 - 7 |
| Underdogs |
11 - 10 |
30 - 12 |
48 - 12 |
Some nice numbers there to be sure, including 16-1 with the 60%+ home dogs and 11-0 with the 55%+ away favorites! For comparison purposes, here are the Drive Chart Teaser results from the same year:
DRIVE CHART TEASER PICKS - 2000 Season
| Overlay |
0 - 1.5 |
2 - 3.5 |
4 - 5.5 |
6 - 7.5 |
8+ Pts |
ALL |
| HomeFavs |
5 - 5 |
12 - 4 |
14 - 1 |
9 - 1 |
20 - 6 |
60 - 17 |
| HomeDogs |
0 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
6 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
12 - 4 |
| AwayFavs |
3 - 4 |
2 - 6 |
6 - 1 |
3 - 3 |
15 - 3 |
29 - 17 |
| AwayDogs |
7 - 4 |
11 - 2 |
10 - 2 |
6 - 3 |
6 - 0 |
40 - 11 |
|
| Favorites |
8 - 9 |
14 - 10 |
20 - 2 |
12 - 4 |
35 - 9 |
89 - 34 |
| Underdogs |
7 - 7 |
14 - 3 |
16 - 2 |
8 - 3 |
7 - 0 |
52 - 15 |
| Home Teams |
5 - 8 |
15 - 5 |
20 - 1 |
11 - 1 |
21 - 6 |
72 - 21 |
| Away Teams |
10 - 8 |
13 - 8 |
16 - 3 |
9 - 6 |
21 - 3 |
69 - 28 |
|
| ALL PICKS |
15 - 16 |
28 - 13 |
36 - 4 |
20 - 7 |
42 - 9 |
141 - 49 |
| WIN % |
48 % |
68 % |
90 % |
74 % |
82 % |
74 % |
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
19 - 7 |
38 - 13 |
32 - 14 |
| Underdogs |
2 - 0 |
13 - 5 |
37 - 10 |
No real strong reason to prefer one over the other to my mind, although obviously with the drive chart projections it's a must to only go for those games a significant distance from the actual line.
Another reader was so kind as to point out that simply playing the five highest drive chart overlays was also an "easy winner" on the 5-team ticket and why had I overlooked this? Well it basically comes down to bad judgement on my part in constructing the tickets last week. The lesson is that while it is fine to look to others for advice and opinion, there's nothing wrong with relying on your own skill and decision making. No point in dwelling on the bad news, let's turn to making some good news:
Breaking out the Drive Chart Teaser bets into classes we get the following:
| Dogs |
Small Favorites |
Big Favorites |
- Philadelphia +9
- Pittsburgh +11.5
- Cleveland +13.5
- Chicago +7
|
- Green Bay +3
- Kansas City +4
- Carolina +2.5
|
- St. Louis -1
- Jacksonville -3
|
The UPM chimes in with Cleveland - Green Bay - New England - Philadelphia (65%+ class), Jacksonville - Pittsburgh (60%+), Kansas City - Detroit - Chicago (55%+). The extras not on the Drive Chart list are New England (+16.5) and Detroit (+12). Here then are my tickets for the week:
4-Team Ticket -- Cleveland +13.5, Green Bay +3, New England +16.5, Philadelphia +9
4-Team Ticket -- Philadelphia +9, Pittsburgh +11.5, Chicago +7, Kansas City +4
3-Team Ticket -- Green Bay +3, Jacksonville -3, Philadelphia +9
3-Team Ticket -- Cleveland +13.5, Green Bay +3, Kansas City +4
3-Team Ticket -- Jacksonville -3, Pittsburgh +11.5, Chicago +7
3-Team Ticket -- St. Louis -1, Kansas City +4, Cleveland +13.5
3-Team Ticket -- Carolina +2.5, Pittsburgh +11.5, Chicago +7
3-Team Ticket -- St. Louis -1, New England +16.5, Jacksonville -3
2-Team Tickets --
[1] Green Bay-Jacksonville, [2] Pittsburgh-Philadelphia, [3] Pittsburgh-Kansas City, [4] Jacksonville-Philadelphia, [5] St. Louis-Chicago, [6] New England-Chicago, [7] Green Bay-Kansas City, [8] Green Bay-Cleveland, [9] Cleveland-Kansas City, [10] St. Louis-New England
Season-To-Date Results: (-5.5 units)
2-Team Teasers: 6-8 (-2.8)
3-Team Teasers: 1-2 (-0.2)
4-Team Teasers: 0-5 (-5.0)
5-Team Teasers: 1-1 (+3.5)
6-Team Teasers: 0-1 (-1.0)
|
|
Last week: First week of the multi-combinations goes poorly. Selected teams are 8-3-1 as six point teaser plays (72%) but ticket construction yields below expected results. 0/1 with 5-tm (Rams missed), 0/3 on 4-tm, 1/2 on 3-tm, and 4/10 on 2-tm for net loss of -5.8 units.
Review: Week 5 Teaser Picks
Review: Week 4 Teaser Picks
Review: Week 3 Teaser Picks
Review: Week 2 Teaser Picks
Review: Week 1 Teaser Picks
|
|
