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Turnover Report
A quick query on the turnover success rate in week six games shows:
- All Turnovers: 90-79 (53.2%)
- Net Fumbles: 84-61 (57.9%)
- Net Interceptions: 78-77 (50.3%)
Not as strong as what we saw for week five and in week six games it looks like the key is fumbles. For those unfamiliar with our turnover research, you may want to review the following prior articles for background on this theory:
Let's see what we've got for week six:
All numbers represent season totals, not per game
you need at least a 3 net difference to qualify as pick
shown as away minus home: neg nums play away, pos nums play home
| Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Buffalo |
-9 |
Jacksonville |
-7 |
-4 |
-11 |
BUF |
BUF |
BUF |
| Atlanta |
-8.5 |
New Orleans |
-1 |
-2 |
-3 |
|
|
ATL |
| Baltimore |
+7 |
Cleveland |
-7 |
0 |
-7 |
BAL |
|
BAL |
| Carolina |
+3.5 |
Washington |
2 |
3 |
5 |
|
WAS |
WAS |
| Chicago |
-1 |
Cincinnati |
-3 |
3 |
0 |
CHI |
CIN |
|
| Denver |
Off |
San Diego |
-6 |
-1 |
-7 |
DEN |
|
DEN |
| Green Bay |
+3 |
Minnesota |
3 |
10 |
13 |
MIN |
MIN |
MIN |
| Kansas City |
+2 |
Arizona |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
ARI |
| New England |
-10.5 |
Indianapolis |
10 |
-3 |
7 |
IND |
NE |
IND |
| Pittsburgh |
-5.5 |
Tampa Bay |
-4 |
-2 |
-6 |
PIT |
|
PIT |
| St. Louis |
+7 |
N.Y. Jets |
-5 |
-7 |
-12 |
STL |
STL |
STL |
| Tennessee |
+6 |
Detroit |
3 |
5 |
8 |
DET |
DET |
DET |
| Philadelphia |
-3 |
N.Y. Giants |
3 |
-4 |
-1 |
NYG |
PHI |
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ANALYSIS: The net turnover plays in week six have been kind of sketchy and for all intents and purposes the INT numbers can be ignored. To get our key plays we want the fumble and net t/o on the same page. That means Buffalo +9 , Washington +3.5, Minnesota +3, St. Louis -7 , and Detroit +6.
In case you're wondering how the really, really bad and really, really good teams in turnovers do at this stage: away teams with a -2 or worse net t/o per game have been 9-2 against the line, away teams with a +2 or better are 2-1, home teams with a -2 or worse are 4-1, home teams with a +2 or better are 4-4. The only teams that bad (-2 net turnover per game) so far are Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Detroit. The only team that good (+2 net per game) is the Jets and we are backing St. Louis already. If we had to pick one team with a winning record now that will be in trouble by December it's the Jets with their unbelievably lucky +15 net turnovers!
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