Trends
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week six games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats, or one team had a week one bye, there is no play.
Week 6 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
19 - 29 |
39 % |
26 - 28 |
48 % |
45 - 57 |
44 % |
| Win % Last Yr |
24 - 31 |
43 % |
22 - 26 |
45 % |
46 - 57 |
44 % |
| Win Last |
11 - 14 |
44 % |
16 - 18 |
47 % |
27 - 32 |
45 % |
| Win 2 Games Ago |
14 - 19 |
42 % |
13 - 15 |
46 % |
27 - 34 |
44 % |
| Spread % STD |
23 - 29 |
44 % |
25 - 28 |
47 % |
48 - 57 |
45 % |
| Spread % last Yr |
18 - 27 |
40 % |
22 - 29 |
43 % |
40 - 56 |
41 % |
| vs Spread last |
13 - 12 |
52 % |
15 - 20 |
42 % |
28 - 32 |
46 % |
| vs Spread 2 back |
14 - 14 |
50 % |
13 - 15 |
46 % |
27 - 29 |
48 % |
| Points for last |
24 - 23 |
51 % |
38 - 30 |
55 % |
62 - 53 |
53 % |
| Points Allowed last |
32 - 32 |
50 % |
26 - 21 |
55 % |
58 - 53 |
52 % |
| Net Pts STD |
22 - 23 |
48 % |
36 - 32 |
52 % |
58 - 55 |
51 % |
| Net Pts Last Yr |
22 - 32 |
40 % |
22 - 24 |
47 % |
44 - 56 |
44 % |
| Net Pts Last |
23 - 31 |
42 % |
29 - 32 |
47 % |
52 - 63 |
45 % |
| Net Pts 2 back |
26 - 29 |
47 % |
32 - 28 |
53 % |
58 - 57 |
50 % |
| Pts For STD |
22 - 28 |
44 % |
31 - 31 |
50 % |
53 - 59 |
47 % |
| Pts For Last Yr |
26 - 29 |
47 % |
21 - 20 |
51 % |
47 - 49 |
48 % |
| Pts Agn STD |
29 - 28 |
50 % |
30 - 26 |
53 % |
59 - 54 |
52 % |
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
24 - 22 |
52 % |
28 - 22 |
56 % |
52 - 44 |
54 % |
| Total Pts STD |
25 - 26 |
49 % |
32 - 31 |
50 % |
57 - 57 |
50 % |
| Total Pts Last Game |
24 - 27 |
47 % |
23 - 24 |
48 % |
47 - 51 |
47 % |
| Rush Yds STD |
25 - 26 |
49 % |
34 - 30 |
53 % |
59 - 56 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds Last Game |
22 - 30 |
42 % |
32 - 34 |
48 % |
54 - 64 |
45 % |
| Rush Yds 2 back |
29 - 26 |
52 % |
36 - 27 |
57 % |
65 - 53 |
55 % |
| Pass Yds STD |
21 - 32 |
39 % |
30 - 35 |
46 % |
51 - 67 |
43 % |
| Pass Yds Last game |
31 - 26 |
54 % |
36 - 25 |
59 % |
67 - 51 |
56 % |
| Pass Yds 2 back |
21 - 31 |
40 % |
31 - 35 |
46 % |
52 - 66 |
44 % |
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
26 - 33 |
44 % |
27 - 29 |
48 % |
53 - 62 |
46 % |
| Rush Yds Agn L Game |
29 - 33 |
46 % |
29 - 26 |
52 % |
58 - 59 |
49 % |
| Rush Yds Agn 2 back |
29 - 27 |
51 % |
35 - 27 |
56 % |
64 - 54 |
54 % |
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
25 - 36 |
40 % |
25 - 30 |
45 % |
50 - 66 |
43 % |
| Pass Yds Agn L Game |
29 - 32 |
47 % |
30 - 27 |
52 % |
59 - 59 |
50 % |
| Pass Yds Agn 2 Back |
23 - 26 |
46 % |
35 - 33 |
51 % |
58 - 59 |
49 % |
| Turnovers STD |
22 - 25 |
46 % |
31 - 30 |
50 % |
53 - 55 |
49 % |
| Turnovers L Game |
22 - 22 |
50 % |
24 - 22 |
52 % |
46 - 44 |
51 % |
| Forced Turnovers STD |
21 - 36 |
36 % |
24 - 32 |
42 % |
45 - 68 |
39 % |
| Forced Turnovers L Game |
22 - 25 |
46 % |
23 - 23 |
50 % |
45 - 48 |
48 % |
| Net T/O L Game |
23 - 29 |
44 % |
23 - 23 |
50 % |
46 - 52 |
46 % |
| Net T/O STD |
29 - 37 |
43 % |
24 - 24 |
50 % |
53 - 61 |
46 % |
| Penalties STD |
32 - 35 |
47 % |
26 - 22 |
54 % |
58 - 57 |
50 % |
| Penalties L Game |
24 - 30 |
44 % |
27 - 25 |
51 % |
51 - 55 |
48 % |
| Sacks OFF STD |
36 - 32 |
52 % |
29 - 19 |
60 % |
65 - 51 |
56 % |
| Sacks OFF L Game |
23 - 30 |
43 % |
24 - 24 |
50 % |
47 - 54 |
46 % |
| Sacks Def STD |
26 - 36 |
41 % |
23 - 25 |
47 % |
49 - 61 |
44 % |
| Sacks Def L Game |
27 - 27 |
50 % |
28 - 21 |
57 % |
55 - 48 |
53 % |
| Punts STD |
28 - 47 |
37 % |
15 - 24 |
38 % |
43 - 71 |
37 % |
| Punts L Game |
21 - 33 |
38 % |
16 - 25 |
39 % |
37 - 58 |
38 % |
| First Downs STD |
21 - 23 |
47 % |
32 - 30 |
51 % |
53 - 53 |
50 % |
| First Downs L Game |
27 - 28 |
49 % |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
58 - 55 |
51 % |
| First Downs Agn STD |
29 - 31 |
48 % |
27 - 21 |
56 % |
56 - 52 |
51 % |
| First Downs Agn L Game |
28 - 29 |
49 % |
30 - 23 |
56 % |
58 - 52 |
52 % |
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
27 - 23 |
54 % |
37 - 26 |
58 % |
64 - 49 |
56 % |
| 3rd Down Conv L Game |
25 - 26 |
49 % |
35 - 30 |
53 % |
60 - 56 |
51 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn STD |
22 - 30 |
42 % |
30 - 30 |
50 % |
52 - 60 |
46 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game |
33 - 28 |
54 % |
29 - 21 |
58 % |
62 - 49 |
55 % |
| Time of Poss STD |
28 - 26 |
51 % |
35 - 26 |
57 % |
63 - 52 |
54 % |
| Time of Poss L Game |
26 - 29 |
47 % |
33 - 30 |
52 % |
59 - 59 |
50 % |
| 1st Qtr Net L Game |
25 - 34 |
42 % |
24 - 26 |
48 % |
49 - 60 |
44 % |
| 4th Qtr Net L Game |
29 - 27 |
51 % |
34 - 25 |
57 % |
63 - 52 |
54 % |
For the data above the factors where total results were 56.5%+ are light green and the factors where total results were 41% or worse are dark green. In cases where there are two very similar and dependent factors, we have selected one for highlighting.
Week six historical results show few trends in a well balanced week between home and away teams. There are a handful of negative factors, with only two marginally postive factors. The following list of factors represents those we view as having the most significant historical implications for this week's games:
It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the "fecund four" factors with reasonable total effectiveness.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK SIX matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Four Factor
Scorecard |
Trend
Pick |
| Buffalo at Jacksonville |
-9 |
Buffalo 4-0 |
Buffalo |
| Atlanta at New Orleans |
-8.5 |
Atlanta 4-0 |
Atlanta |
| Baltimore at Cleveland |
+7 |
Baltimore 4-0 |
Baltimore |
| Carolina at Washington |
+3.5 |
Carolina 3-1 |
|
| Chicago at Cincinnati |
-1 |
Cincinnati 3-1 |
|
| Denver at San Diego |
Off |
San Diego 2-1 |
|
| Green Bay at Minnesota |
+3 |
Green Bay 2-1 |
|
| Kansas City at Arizona |
+2 |
Arizona 2-1 |
|
| New England at Indianapolis |
-10.5 |
Indianapolis 3-1 |
|
| Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay |
-5.5 |
Pittsburgh 3-1 |
|
| St. Louis at N.Y. Jets |
+7 |
St. Louis 4-0 |
St. Louis |
| Tennessee at Detroit |
+6 |
Detroit 3-0 |
Detroit |
| Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants |
-3 |
Philadelphia 2-1 |
|
ANALYSIS:
There are any number of ways you could decide whether something qualifies as a play or not. In some of the past weeks we elected to use the 3-1 ratio or better, but this week we are upping the requirements to 3-0 or better. Several match-ups produce a pick, with all but one being an away team.
In-season trends
As far as the TwoMinuteWarning specific data is concerned, I will shortly have access to the previous seasons and can run specific trends reports for the PSR, BIG, YDS, EFR play-by-play factors, as well as drive chart information. Last week saw mostly negative performance from individual (projected) factors with the best and worst being:
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