Trends
This week in the Trends column we'll be examining whether there are any specific conventional stat categories that have had strong predictive value in week seven games. The following table lists various statistical factors and the results against the spread playing the team with the HIGHER numbers in the specific category. Note that this means that in something like "Points Allowed" the results are for playing the team with the most points allowed, not the team with the fewest points allowed as you would probably expect. In games where teams have equal stats there is no play.
Week 7 Stat Comparison results 1991-2000
(Results expressed as W-L vs the spread)
| Factor |
Home W-L |
Home W% |
Away W-L |
Away W% |
Total W-L |
Total W% |
| Win % STD |
28 - 24 |
53 % |
22 - 27 |
44 % |
50 - 51 |
49 % |
| Win % Last Yr |
30 - 25 |
54 % |
22 - 26 |
45 % |
52 - 51 |
50 % |
| Win Last |
19 - 20 |
48 % |
14 - 12 |
53 % |
33 - 32 |
50 % |
| Win 2 Games Ago |
15 - 11 |
57 % |
14 - 13 |
51 % |
29 - 24 |
54 % |
| Spread % STD |
26 - 32 |
44 % |
16 - 34 |
32 % |
42 - 66 |
38 % |
| Spread % last Yr |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
20 - 26 |
43 % |
51 - 53 |
49 % |
| vs Spread last |
23 - 21 |
52 % |
10 - 12 |
45 % |
33 - 33 |
50 % |
| vs Spread 2 back |
12 - 13 |
48 % |
14 - 12 |
53 % |
26 - 25 |
50 % |
| Points for last |
35 - 28 |
55 % |
22 - 28 |
44 % |
57 - 56 |
50 % |
| Points Allowed last |
24 - 22 |
52 % |
31 - 41 |
43 % |
55 - 63 |
46 % |
| Net Pts STD |
31 - 33 |
48 % |
20 - 32 |
38 % |
51 - 65 |
43 % |
| Net Pts Last Yr |
30 - 20 |
60 % |
28 - 27 |
50 % |
58 - 47 |
55 % |
| Net Pts Last |
38 - 34 |
52 % |
19 - 25 |
43 % |
57 - 59 |
49 % |
| Net Pts 2 back |
31 - 23 |
57 % |
29 - 33 |
46 % |
60 - 56 |
51 % |
| Pts For STD |
26 - 31 |
45 % |
22 - 39 |
36 % |
48 - 70 |
40 % |
| Pts For Last Yr |
27 - 19 |
58 % |
25 - 29 |
46 % |
52 - 48 |
52 % |
| Pts Agn STD |
30 - 21 |
58 % |
28 - 33 |
45 % |
58 - 54 |
51 % |
| Pts Agn Last Yr |
28 - 21 |
57 % |
25 - 30 |
45 % |
53 - 51 |
50 % |
| Total Pts STD |
27 - 21 |
56 % |
31 - 36 |
46 % |
58 - 57 |
50 % |
| Total Pts Last Game |
24 - 18 |
57 % |
29 - 32 |
47 % |
53 - 50 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds STD |
33 - 26 |
55 % |
28 - 32 |
46 % |
61 - 58 |
51 % |
| Rush Yds Last Game |
33 - 28 |
54 % |
26 - 31 |
45 % |
59 - 59 |
50 % |
| Rush Yds 2 back |
38 - 25 |
60 % |
28 - 28 |
50 % |
66 - 53 |
55 % |
| Pass Yds STD |
31 - 26 |
54 % |
28 - 35 |
44 % |
59 - 61 |
49 % |
| Pass Yds Last game |
32 - 25 |
56 % |
29 - 34 |
46 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| Pass Yds 2 back |
36 - 29 |
55 % |
25 - 30 |
45 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| Rush Yds Agn STD |
31 - 24 |
56 % |
30 - 35 |
46 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| Rush Yds Agn L Game |
30 - 20 |
60 % |
33 - 36 |
47 % |
63 - 56 |
52 % |
| Rush Yds Agn 2 back |
30 - 23 |
56 % |
31 - 36 |
46 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| Pass Yds Agn STD |
27 - 26 |
50 % |
27 - 39 |
40 % |
54 - 65 |
45 % |
| Pass Yds Agn L Game |
32 - 24 |
57 % |
30 - 34 |
46 % |
62 - 58 |
51 % |
| Pass Yds Agn 2 Back |
36 - 27 |
57 % |
27 - 30 |
47 % |
63 - 57 |
52 % |
| Turnovers STD |
30 - 26 |
53 % |
26 - 30 |
46 % |
56 - 56 |
50 % |
| Turnovers L Game |
23 - 20 |
53 % |
27 - 31 |
46 % |
50 - 51 |
49 % |
| Forced Turnovers STD |
28 - 26 |
51 % |
23 - 31 |
42 % |
51 - 57 |
47 % |
| Forced Turnovers L Game |
31 - 27 |
53 % |
16 - 20 |
44 % |
47 - 47 |
50 % |
| Net T/O L Game |
37 - 29 |
56 % |
16 - 26 |
38 % |
53 - 55 |
49 % |
| Net T/O STD |
30 - 30 |
50 % |
23 - 34 |
40 % |
53 - 64 |
45 % |
| Penalties STD |
32 - 22 |
59 % |
31 - 29 |
51 % |
63 - 51 |
55 % |
| Penalties L Game |
27 - 28 |
49 % |
23 - 29 |
44 % |
50 - 57 |
46 % |
| Sacks OFF STD |
23 - 25 |
47 % |
28 - 39 |
41 % |
51 - 64 |
44 % |
| Sacks OFF L Game |
25 - 26 |
49 % |
20 - 33 |
37 % |
45 - 59 |
43 % |
| Sacks Def STD |
37 - 28 |
56 % |
19 - 27 |
41 % |
56 - 55 |
50 % |
| Sacks Def L Game |
30 - 27 |
52 % |
22 - 26 |
45 % |
52 - 53 |
49 % |
| Punts STD |
31 - 26 |
54 % |
27 - 32 |
45 % |
58 - 58 |
50 % |
| Punts L Game |
31 - 26 |
54 % |
23 - 29 |
44 % |
54 - 55 |
49 % |
| First Downs STD |
25 - 25 |
50 % |
24 - 34 |
41 % |
49 - 59 |
45 % |
| First Downs L Game |
27 - 29 |
48 % |
22 - 38 |
36 % |
49 - 67 |
42 % |
| First Downs Agn STD |
28 - 19 |
59 % |
25 - 28 |
47 % |
53 - 47 |
53 % |
| First Downs Agn L Game |
28 - 24 |
53 % |
28 - 36 |
43 % |
56 - 60 |
48 % |
| 3rd Down Conv STD |
36 - 27 |
57 % |
24 - 28 |
46 % |
60 - 55 |
52 % |
| 3rd Down Conv L Game |
28 - 30 |
48 % |
22 - 35 |
38 % |
50 - 65 |
43 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn STD |
30 - 19 |
61 % |
33 - 35 |
48 % |
63 - 54 |
53 % |
| 3rd Down Conv Agn L Game |
28 - 22 |
56 % |
31 - 37 |
45 % |
59 - 59 |
50 % |
| Time of Poss STD |
35 - 25 |
58 % |
28 - 31 |
47 % |
63 - 56 |
52 % |
| Time of Poss L Game |
37 - 30 |
55 % |
24 - 29 |
45 % |
61 - 59 |
50 % |
| 1st Qtr Net L Game |
39 - 28 |
58 % |
21 - 22 |
48 % |
60 - 50 |
54 % |
| 4th Qtr Net L Game |
36 - 27 |
57 % |
21 - 27 |
43 % |
57 - 54 |
51 % |
For the data above the factors where total results were 55%+ are light green and the factors where total results were 41% or worse are dark green. In cases where there are two very similar and dependent factors, we have selected one for highlighting.
Week seven historical results show few pronounced trends. There are a handful of negative factors, with only three marginally postive factors. The following list of factors represents those we view as having the most significant historical implications for this week's games:
It is completely within reason to argue with the inclusion of any of the above, and the omittal of other seemingly predictive factors, but we will concentrate on the "special six" factors with reasonable total effectiveness.
Let's take a look then at the 2001 season WEEK SEVEN matchups:
| Match-Up |
Line
(Home) |
Six Factor
Scorecard |
Trend
Pick |
| Indianapolis at Kansas City |
+3 |
Kansas City 4-2 |
|
| Arizona at Dallas |
pick |
Dallas 4-2 |
|
| Buffalo at San Diego |
-8 |
Buffalo 6-0 |
Buffalo |
| Cincinnati at Detroit |
-3 |
Detroit 4-2 |
|
| Jacksonville at Baltimore |
-7.5 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
| Miami at Seattle |
+2.5 |
Miami 4-2 |
|
| Minnesota at Tampa Bay |
-3 |
Tampa Bay 4-2 |
|
| New England at Denver |
-7.5 |
Denver 4-0 |
Denver |
| New Orleans at St. Louis |
-12 |
New Orleans 4-2 |
|
| N.Y. Jets at Carolina |
+2.5 |
Carolina 3-2 |
|
| Oakland at Philadelphia |
-1 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
| San Francisco at Chicago |
-2.5 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
| N.Y Giants at Washington |
+7.5 |
Washington 3-2 |
|
| Tennessee at Pittsburgh |
-3 |
Tied 3-3 |
|
ANALYSIS:
There are any number of ways you could decide whether something qualifies as a play or not. This week we are looking for 4-1 or better. Two match-ups produce a pick, one a touchdown+ favorite, one a touchdown+ dog.
In-season trends
As far as the TwoMinuteWarning specific data is concerned, I am presently working on previous seasons and can now run specific trends reports for the PSR, BIG, YDS, EFR play-by-play factors, as well as drive chart information. For instance, here are the results playing the higher projected team in 1999:
- Rush PSR 85-92
- Rush Big 93-80
- Rush Yds 92-84
- Rush EFR 85-95
- Pass PSR 84-86
- Pass Big 75-84
- Pass Yds 89-91
- Pass EFR 86-94
Keep in mind that this is a simplistic use of the data which does not take into account the delta between teams or the point spread on the game. More sophisticated research will follow.
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