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The links on the left are for the actual pages posted in the subscriber section for the week seven games.
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Week Seven Wagering Wrap-Up
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A disappointing week overall, week seven saw the underdog dominance come back to earth, although the dogs were still ahead 8 to 6. Home and away teams split with seven covers each.
Peter's Quick-Picks were 7-7 and are staying in the middle of the pack in your office pool at 49-45 on the year. By popular demand the straight-up quick picks will continue to be posted, despite being knocked out of the elimination pool in week six.
On the data side:
- Overlays: the overlays continued to struggle, with the Drive Chart 4+ overlays limping in at 3-6 (6-8 for all plays), while the Play-By-Play overlays were scorched to the tune of a 1-8 record. The huge disparity in the underdogs/favorites cover rates is clearly taking its toll here, where the Drive Charts are for instance 3-16 when picking a favorite, 14-6 when taking a dog.
- Ultimate Prediction Machine: the "UPM" was 2-3 with the 65%+ confidence plays (now 8-5 for the year), and 8-6 on all the week seven action. The UPM tends to pick a higher proportion of underdogs and consequently has been reasonably strong thus far (22-17 for all plays).
- Money-Line: the UPM Money-Line had another solid week, winning with Dallas, Cincinnati, and New Orleans to go 3-4 for +279 (net based on a $100 unit) on the big edge plays. The small edge plays were 2-0 for +200 as both the favorite calls won. On the season all the M/L edge picks have combined for a 16-11 record and +1,664 return. Please note that we don't get reliable money lines until later in the week and so while the Tuesday post includes the predicted win percentages and fair value money line, the recommended plays appear once we get the M/Lines.
- Over/Unders: The totals overlays were 3-3 on the 4+ drive chart plays, and 4-3 on the 4+ play-by-play picks. The play-by-play totals picks were 9-3 overall, making amends somewhat for the dismal side record. The UPM over/under simulator continued to be poor and given this is the first season for the UPM O/U we suggest caution with the output until we have seen signs of good performance.
As far as the commentary features went:
- Turnovers: The turnover column went 2-1 with the key plays, and is now 14-3 since hitting the magical week five stage.
- CSM: The Cumulative Spread Margin plays, another contrarian approach, finished at 5-3 overall, and 2-1 with the key plays. Please note that we have in our research shown that the CSM plays have been poor bets overall the last four years, but we will continue to produce the numbers, along with the over/under CSM, since they are interesting data in themselves and a good gauge of how contrarian the year is playing.
- Trends: The trends plays were 2-0 in week seven and are 23-10 on the year. Scott will be taking a look at some in-season factors this week, as well as gauging what historical biases there are for week eight match-ups.
- Motivation: The motivational duo has been in a slump for some time, and last week saw Jerry go 1-3 and fall to 15-15 year-to-date. Teri was 1-1 and is 6-8 on the season.
- Inside the 20: The drive chart red zone predictions were 3-8 with the 4+ overlays, and 5-9 overall. The top three red zone teams at this stage are Philadelphia, the Giants, and Tampa Bay. The bottom three are Washington, Dallas, and Miami. Whether red zone stats have decent predictive value remains to be seen.
- Teasers: The teaser column hit with the 5-team "UPM Best" ticket (and UPM teaser players have been having a field day, going 14-1 with the 65% and up confidence picks as teaser bets). Overall though the teaser column was in the red again with a loss of over three units.
- GF Report: The GF Team went 1-1 with their two unit plays and 0-2 with the 1-unit games to wind up down by 2.4 units for the week.
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