Tim has been pushing for a long time for his beloved "Week That Was" feature to be developed into a full fledged handicapping tool. At long last he's getting his wish, as the weekly play-by-play level detail will be part of the new TwoMinuteWarning NFL Past Performances!
The staff here hopes the TMW PP's can provide a new approach to football handicapping.
TMW PP's: Baltimore at Denver (-3.5 )
PSR: 'Play Success Rate' - every play is graded as either a success of failure
Big: Percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: Adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: 'Effectiveness rating' - a one number overall summary
Stats: This is the projected score based on the stats. This column lets us know who 'should' have won.
Baltimore
Offense
Defense
Rushing
Passing
Rushing
Passing
Week
Opp
Line
Score
Stats
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
4
SD
+2.5
16-13
7-22
35%
5%
2.8
50
35%
6%
4.2
67
34%
7%
3.2
48
52%
4%
5.8
100
3
@CLE
-6.5
15-14
15-24
28%
8%
3.5
52
46%
5%
5.9
95
31%
5%
2.0
63
41%
15%
6.2
100
2
OAK
-11.5
28-6
23-0
48%
14%
3.7
75
30%
8%
3.8
50
19%
4%
1.5
26
36%
8%
3.8
41
1
@TB
+3
27-0
25-0
30%
7%
3.3
53
48%
3%
6.1
96
35%
0%
1.1
42
37%
3%
3.1
29
Avg.
-3.5
21-8
17-11
35%
8%
3.3
57
39%
5%
5.0
77
29%
4%
1.9
44
41%
7%
4.7
67
Denver
Offense
Defense
Rushing
Passing
Rushing
Passing
Week
Opp
Line
Score
Stats
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
3
@NE
+7
17-7
30-13
38%
12%
3.8
61
39%
15%
8.5
118
25%
5%
2.4
35
44%
5%
4.9
98
2
KC
-10.5
9-6
21-24
41%
18%
4.3
70
39%
10%
5.7
93
47%
9%
4.2
79
45%
4%
5.4
100
1
@STL
-3.5
10-18
6-21
60%
12%
6.4
112
38%
0%
3.7
32
40%
16%
5.1
84
32%
8%
4.8
70
Avg.
-2.5
12-10
19-19
46%
14%
4.8
81
38%
8%
6.0
81
37%
10%
3.9
66
40%
5%
5.0
89
Note: team averages are averages per game as opposed to an average of all plays individually.
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