Tim has been pushing for a long time for his beloved "Week That Was" feature to be developed into a full fledged handicapping tool. At long last he's getting his wish, as the weekly play-by-play level detail will be part of the new TwoMinuteWarning NFL Past Performances!
The staff here hopes the TMW PP's can provide a new approach to football handicapping.
TMW PP's: Miami at New England (-10 )
PSR: 'Play Success Rate' - every play is graded as either a success of failure
Big: Percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: Adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: 'Effectiveness rating' - a one number overall summary
Stats: This is the projected score based on the stats. This column lets us know who 'should' have won.
Miami
Offense
Defense
Rushing
Passing
Rushing
Passing
Week
Opp
Line
Score
Stats
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
4
@HOU
-3.5
15-17
26-17
64%
14%
5.0
107
36%
5%
4.7
84
32%
3%
2.4
48
47%
12%
6.2
97
3
TEN
-11
13-10
14-17
36%
12%
4.8
72
34%
3%
4.0
68
36%
5%
2.8
45
42%
17%
7.2
94
2
BUF
-7
6-16
17-8
50%
10%
4.6
80
43%
10%
4.7
64
42%
12%
2.8
60
31%
5%
4.8
63
1
@PIT
+1.5
17-28
3-35
35%
0%
1.6
58
37%
7%
5.2
62
33%
9%
4.0
45
46%
13%
7.5
128
Avg.
-5
12-17
15-19
46%
9%
4.0
79
37%
6%
4.6
69
35%
7%
3.0
49
41%
11%
6.4
95
New England
Offense
Defense
Rushing
Passing
Rushing
Passing
Week
Opp
Line
Score
Stats
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
PSR
Big
Yds
EFR
4
@CIN
+6
38-13
42-23
56%
18%
5.5
115
53%
11%
8.0
128
47%
12%
4.1
94
48%
5%
5.3
100
3
DEN
-7
7-17
13-30
25%
5%
2.4
35
44%
5%
4.9
98
38%
12%
3.8
61
39%
15%
8.5
118
2
@NYJ
-6
24-17
32-15
51%
10%
3.5
76
50%
16%
7.6
118
29%
0%
1.7
25
58%
10%
7.4
112
1
BUF
-9
19-17
25-22
63%
11%
4.8
110
38%
12%
5.3
80
40%
16%
3.5
72
38%
8%
5.4
100
Avg.
-4
22-16
28-22
48%
11%
4.1
84
46%
11%
6.4
106
38%
10%
3.3
63
45%
9%
6.7
107
Note: team averages are averages per game as opposed to an average of all plays individually.
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