Week 1: Cumulative Spread Margin
Also known as "Contrarian Bridgejumping", the CSM is a method geared primarily to the middle part of the season, but has some interesting applications to week one games.
As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of "CSM" for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.
While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 39-21 record from 1984-2004.
