Cumulative Spread Margin
("Contrarian Bridgejumping")
Week One
If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:
As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
Example: if team A is averaging a -2 pt CSM and team B is +5 CSM per game so far, then team A would be the play based on being 7 CSM pts worse per game.
While the method is focused on the week 5 to week 12 heart of the season, it seems logical that the angle might work fairly well for the first week of a season, given that the lousy teams from last year will probably be under-rated, while the good teams from last season may generally be over-rated. Here are the CSM results in week one games:
Week 1 "Cumulative Spread Margin" results 1984-2005
(using prior season's stats)
| Overlay |
6 - 7.9 |
8+ Pts |
| HomeFavs |
7 - 4 |
1 - 0 |
| HomeDogs |
7 - 4 |
11 - 3 |
| AwayFavs |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
| AwayDogs |
8 - 6 |
8 - 6 |
| Favorites |
7 - 5 |
1 - 0 |
| Underdogs |
15 - 10 |
19 - 9 |
| Home Teams |
14 - 8 |
12 - 3 |
| Away Teams |
8 - 7 |
8 - 6 |
| ALL PICKS |
22 - 15 |
20 - 9 |
| WIN % |
59 % |
69 % |
Spread Ranges for the 6+ Difference plays
| Spread Range |
10+ points |
5 to 9.5 |
0 to 4.5 |
| Favorites |
0 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
7 - 5 |
| Underdogs |
4 - 3 |
13 - 10 |
16 - 7 |
So it's a little impressive seeing the 6+ plays (the only ones that count) have compiled a 42-24 record from 1984-20067
Let's take a look then at the 2007 season matchups:
Away
CSM |
Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Home
CSM |
Pick |
CSM Diff |
| 5.9 |
New Orleans |
-5.5 |
Indianapolis |
-2.7 |
Indianapolis |
8.6 |
Analysis: Even though the Colts were the eventual Super Bowl winners, during the regular season they were negative against the spread (partly from being favored by huge amounts in many games) while the Saints were the Cinderella team and had the second best spread points per game in the league. The CSM theory would have you believe that the tables may turn this season, and the Colts are in the 8+ CSM difference category.
Favor: Indianapolis -5.5
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