NFL Best Bet Picks

Each week the person in charge of a subscriber feature can submit a 'best bet' selection. These have proved to be very potent since the introduction of this concept three years ago, and we will present a best bet freebie on this page each week to showcase the range of our various subscriber handicapping tools.

You hang around these parts long enough and you start thinking the only possible bet you're ever allowed to make if you are remotely aware of anything at all relating to NFL football is...the underdog.

"Get points, don't give them" might as well be the TMW in a nutshell summary.

I say, as pappy said, Bull-horn-horsey.

Today I am going to whisk you through a whirlwind romance, a fluttering of the heart, a swooning of the soul, that I call:

"Falling in love with the big favorite (and loving it.)"

Don't bother trying to trademark that name by the way, it's already mine. If this here gig goes well then the book will be hitting the stores and NY Times bestseller list by November.

Let's take a look at two, oh slightly less than random teams:

Indianapolis Colts

without Peyton on the field (defense)

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Baltimore	38%	14%	3.7	76	41%	5%	5.2	65	10
Jacksonville	44%	12%	4.7	72	29%	12%	4.8	67	11

The Tim Takeaway: slow start on offense (read: they can do much, much better), but defensively looking like Dungy's Tampa Bay teams.

Cleveland Browns

without Trent on the field (defense)

Matchup	Rush PSR	Rush Big	Rush Yds	Rush EFR	Pass PSR	Pass Big	Pass Yds	Pass EFR	Stats Score
Cincinnati	60%	6%	4.1	96	61%	8%	6.8	128	40
Green Bay	48%	7%	4.0	86	62%	11%	7.4	131	33

The Tim Takeaway: nice job Dilfer! but the running game is sucky. On defense, well, let's just say that Peyton and the Colts passing crew are salivating at this matchup.

The Tim Forecast

The Tim Verdict

NFL GAME OF THE NEW MILLENIUM

Some ~scoff~ so called handicappers lure you in with games of the week, games of the month, NFC South divisional game of the year and other complete utter nonsense. Tim however goes right out on the line and offers you something that defies star system betting. Forget those slow 'compounded interest' schemes, or those ponzi 'low risk mutual funds'. No brother, I'm offering you an instantaneous, overnight, zero chance of anything going wrong, doubling of your money. Max out the credit cards, take on the second or reverse mortgage. Easy street courtesy of Tim is coming.

Oh yeah, to complete the picture of Sharp Tim I better lay down at what lines and vigs this bet is going to "count" in the official Tim records: take the Colts at anything up to -27.5 (-150)...but not a 1/2 point more!

Favor: Indianapolis -13.5

What do you think? Make your opinion known on the Message Boards

Feature	2002-2004	3-Yr W%
Inside the 20	29-14	67%
Injury Report	30-15	67%
DC/TO	26-14	65%
Trends	32-18	64%
Drive Charts	28-16	64%
CSM	15-9	63%
Full Story	22-14	61%
Turnovers	25-16	61%
Last 5 UPM	20-17	54%
Play-By-Play	21-21	50%
UPM	23-24	49%
Angles	9-16	36%

-- The Free Best Bet Picks combined for a record of 10-7 (59%) during the 2004 season

2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM

2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles