Week 4: Stats Force
While we have our tried and true features that have been part of the subscriber content package for years, we are still on the lookout for innovative new approaches for NFL forecasting. The 'Stats Force' is one such effort, and had a fine 20-14 (59%) record in its initial campaign.
Many stats exist for NFL football but the essence of the game is simple: yards and points.
These two stats have for many years combined to be the famous "yards per point" you hear talk of.
Stats Force will have a small twist on otherwise common handicapping beliefs. Even the worst offensive team will get some yards in a game. We use yards and yards per point calcs based on subtracting the first 100 yards gained. So if a team had 300 yards and 20 points, the usual method had them at 15 yds/point. You change it now to 200 and 20 and the team gets 10 "key yards" per point. We also use the TwoMinuteWarning yards per drive and points per drive numbers. By doing this we take out defensive touchdowns which are hard to predict and special teams touchdowns which are also not a reflection of basic offense vs defense action.
Like most things used to pick winners in the NFL, underdogs are the key bets. Yet this method tests out at over 54% on all games, but still better with underdogs.
| Match-up |
STATS FORCE |
Spread |
Spread
Winner |
By X Pts |
| Dallas at Oakland |
+2.2 |
-3.5 |
Dallas |
5.7 |
Analysis:
Key Game: Dallas at Oakland
DAL Offense: 272 Key Yards, 9.5 Key Yds/Point
OAK Offense: 224 Key Yards, 11.3 Key Yds/Point
DAL Defense: 248 Key Yards, 10.7 Key Yds/Point
OAK Defense: 308 Key Yards, 11.8 Key Yds/Point
--- Dallas offense superior and excellent key yards per point efficiency. Oakland defense leaky but has held better. Too many points.
Favor: Dallas +3.5
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