Week 5: DC/TO
The DC/TO combines two of our long running and powerful predictors -- the drive chart stats and turnover difference -- into one. So far it's been a bit of an enigma. In testing the DC/TO showed incredible consistency and predictive value, but in two live seasons, it's had one hit and one miss. It did however have a scorching hot week to start off the counted portion of the season here in 2005, and the DC/TO Best Bet picks are now 29-15 (66%) lifetime.
Miami at Buffalo
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIA |
4.7 |
26 |
2:27 |
20% |
11% |
47% |
11% |
21.5 |
| BUF |
3.8 |
21 |
2:44 |
7% |
21% |
48% |
9% |
14.0 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| MIA |
4.8 |
28 |
2:40 |
17% |
8% |
54% |
14% |
17.4 |
| BUF |
4.8 |
30 |
3:07 |
17% |
15% |
48% |
15% |
20.6 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
DCTO* |
Miami
Buffalo |
21
14 |
18
8 |
When I look at the DC/TO numbers I like to see the projected score in conjunction with the straight 'drive chart' view of the game. The ideal situation I believe, and there may be some historical evidence for this, is a case where a team was already the overlay (pick against the spread) based on the pure drive chart numbers, but sees its overlay increase with the inclusion of the DC/TO turnover effect.
So in the game above, Miami was already forecast to win by seven 'by the numbers' but sees that increase to a projected ten point margin with the DC/TO. Basically that's saying Miami has been the better team even in spite of having worse turnover numbers (or luck) to this stage. If the turnovers are even this week (or may we hope in Miami's favor!) then the prospects look good.
The one caveat with this play is that the Bills are likely a better team with Holcomb as the QB then with Losman and rumors have a change in the works.
Favor: Miami +3 (currently +3, -130 at Bodog)
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