Week 9: Trends
The following table shows how home teams with certain offensive/defensive rankings have done in matchups in the fifth week of the season and beyond using this rating scheme for both rushing yards and passing yards:
- Top 10 Ranking worth one point
- Rank of 11 to 20 worth two points
- Rank of 21+ worth 3 points
| Factors |
Home Rank
Points |
Spread W-L |
Spread Win% |
| Rushing Defense + Passing Defense |
2 |
174-122 |
59% |
| Rushing Offense + Passing Defense |
2 |
157-105 |
60% |
| Passing Offense + Passing Defense |
6 |
26-57* |
31% |
* as favorites
Not that this constitutes a great deal of meaningful data, but based on this table there are three combinations that have been some distance from the 50% expected value. A few teams might be worth a closer look here in 2005:
- Washington - Rank #10 in rushing offense and #1 in passing defense
- Baltimore - Rank #9 in rushing defense and #2 in passing defense
- Tampa Bay - Rank #1 in rushing defense and #3 in passing defense
- Jacksonville - Rank #8 in rushing offense and #5 in passing defense
Analysis: Washington and Philadelphia both played badly last week. The difference is Washington was facing an inspired team (see some of the Motivation Analysis postings). Back at home the passing defense and running game should help them take this one.
Favor: Washington -2.5
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