NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
If you are not seeing the current week after that time, your browser is loading a cached page (a common problem for AOL users). Try hitting 'refresh' or contact your ISP.
Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
7-2 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
7-2 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
5-3 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
6-2 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
4-1 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
4-3 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
6-3 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
4-2 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
4-1 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
6-2 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
2-1 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-4 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
2-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
2-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
4-3 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
2-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
|
Week 10: "Stats Force"
While we have our tried and true features that have been part of the subscriber content package for years, we are still on the lookout for innovative new approaches for NFL forecasting. The 'Stats Force' is one such effort, and is off to a fine start in its initial campaign.
Many stats exist for NFL football but the essence of the game is simple: yards and points.
These two stats have for many years combined to be the famous "yards per point" you hear talk of.
Stats Force will have a small twist on otherwise common handicapping beliefs. Even the worst offensive team will get some yards in a game. We use yards and yards per point calcs based on subtracting the first 100 yards gained. So if a team had 300 yards and 20 points, the usual method had them at 15 yds/point. You change it now to 200 and 20 and the team gets 10 "key yards" per point. We also use the TwoMinuteWarning yards per drive and points per drive numbers. By doing this we take out defensive touchdowns which are hard to predict and special teams touchdowns which are also not a reflection of basic offense vs defense action.
Like everything used to pick winners in the NFL, underdogs are the key bets. Yet this method tests out at over 54% on all games, but still better with underdogs.
| Match-up |
STATS FORCE |
Spread |
Spread
Winner |
By X Pts |
| Baltimore at NY Jets |
-6.3 |
+1.5 |
NY Jets |
7.8 |
Analysis:
Key Game: Baltimore at New York Jets
BAL Offense: 164 Key Yards, 10.8 Key Yds/Point
NYJ Offense: 308 Key Yards, 11.9 Key Yds/Point
BAL Defense: 188 Key Yards, 13.5 Key Yds/Point
NYJ Defense: 236 Key Yards, 13.0 Key Yds/Point
--- Baltimore offense is weak in key yards comparison. Defensively both teams similar in key yards per point. Pennington is out, but he's not worth seven points per game.
Favor: New York Jets +1.5
Also see:
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
|
