Week 10: Turnover Difference
If you want a method that has demonstrated success for 20+ years, continuing to work from one era to the next, then Turnover Difference could be your best bet. Our longest running feature if you will, the turnover story should not be ignored...
New York Jets at Carolina (-9)
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| N.Y. Jets |
-9 |
Carolina |
3 |
-9 |
-6 |
- |
NYJ |
NYJ |
| Team |
Def. Int |
Def. Fum |
Off. Int |
Off. Fum |
Net T/O |
| N.Y. Jets |
11 |
4 |
7 |
9 |
-1 |
| Carolina |
9 |
11 |
8 |
7 |
+5 |
Analysis:
This season the Jets have struggled from the start, losing starting QB Chad Pennington early on and have scored more than 20 points only once (their most recent game). Their road performance in particular leaves something to be desired with four ten plus point defeats. The Panthers on the other hand are fresh from two straight blowout wins following their bye and have positioned themselves in a tie for the division lead with the Falcons.
Now I'm not expecting a total letdown here but a look at the turnover data shows that the Panthers are +4 net in fumbles, and the Jets are -5. There's two ways of looking at this:
- Carolina is incredibly skillful, well coached and disciplined, and can strip and recover fumbles almost at will while the Jets being a bad team just plain stink at holding onto the ball and forcing turnovers, or
- Carolina has been lucky
Turnover Difference theory basically says we should believe option 2.
Your thoughts also might change when you find out that the Panthers have recovered 11 fumbles on defense out of 13 chances! Given the overall fumble recovery rate on defense is 49% this season, that 85% number for Carolina seems a tad fortunate.
Can you really handicap an NFL game knowing nothing more than the number of mishaps and blunders? In some cases, yes you can.
Favor: New York Jets +9
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2004 |
3-Yr W% |
| Inside the 20 |
29-14 |
67% |
| Injury Report |
30-15 |
67% |
| DC/TO |
26-14 |
65% |
| Trends |
32-18 |
64% |
| Drive Charts |
28-16 |
64% |
| CSM |
15-9 |
63% |
| Full Story |
22-14 |
61% |
| Turnovers |
25-16 |
61% |
| Last 5 UPM |
20-17 |
54% |
| Play-By-Play |
21-21 |
50% |
| UPM |
23-24 |
49% |
| Angles |
9-16 |
36% |
-- The Free Best Bet Picks combined for a record of 10-7 (59%) during the 2004 season
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
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