Week 10: DC/TO
The DC/TO combines two of our long running and powerful predictors -- the drive chart stats and turnover difference -- into one. So far it's been a bit of an enigma in live usage. It is however off to a hot start here in 2006, and the DC/TO Best Bet picks are solid over their lifetime.
Cleveland at Atlanta
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
4.0 |
21 |
2:27 |
13% |
14% |
45% |
19% |
16.6 |
| ATL |
5.3 |
31 |
2:51 |
19% |
16% |
39% |
11% |
22.2 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
4.9 |
28 |
2:34 |
15% |
16% |
47% |
12% |
18.8 |
| ATL |
5.4 |
32 |
2:40 |
17% |
17% |
40% |
17% |
21.4 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
DCTO* |
Cleveland
Atlanta |
17
20 |
24
14 |
Analysis:
One theory with the DC/TO is that the best plays come when the DC/TO projection calls for the same side to cover but by an even larger margin. The premise is that if a team shows up better on the stats in spite of worse turnover performance to that point, then with a little more balance on the turnover front going forward they could be powerful indeed!
The Browns are such a team this week as the pure drive chart stats projection has them keeping it close, while the DC/TO has them winning outright.
The best bet freebie this week is Cleveland +8
Full DC/TO stats by matchup for every game can be seen on the Game Pages.
STAFF PICKS hit 65% last week!
The staff picks include the selections of six different analysts (with four of them hitting better than 60% on the season), and it also includes the best bets for all the tools and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more, check out the Staff Picks page.
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2005 |
4-Yr W% |
| Trends |
43-26 |
62% |
| DC/TO |
35-24 |
59% |
| Injury Report |
37-26 |
59% |
| Drive Charts |
36-25 |
59% |
| Inside the 20 |
34-24 |
59% |
| Turnovers |
33-24 |
58% |
| Regressor |
17-13 |
57% |
| Full Story |
30-25 |
55% |
| CSM |
18-16 |
53% |
| Last 5 UPM |
25-24 |
51% |
| Play-By-Play |
27-33 |
45% |
| UPM |
27-37 |
42% |
2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
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