Week 1: Angles
An atypical TMW method but week one requires creative pick-making!
Using last season's Net Points
We strongly recommend you read the following article first to understand our commentary here:
There is some evidence suggesting that the "net points week one" angle is stronger with the additional requirements for a play -- at least a 2 point difference between the teams' net points the prior season, and at least a 2 point "perceived false value" when comparing the actual line to a line constructed by using last season's net points. We will however utilize the original 'rules' in the following table:
NFL Week 1, 2006
| away team |
'03 net |
home team |
'03 net |
worse
net |
net
line |
LV
line |
line
loser |
val |
PICK |
| Miami |
+0.1 |
Pittsburgh |
+8.2 |
MIA |
-11.1 |
-1.5 |
Mia |
+9.6 |
MIA |
| Atlanta |
+0.6 |
Carolina |
+8.3 |
ATL |
-10.7 |
-6 |
Atl |
+4.7 |
ATL |
| Baltimore |
-2.1 |
Tampa Bay |
+1.6 |
BAL |
-6.7 |
-3 |
Bal |
+3.7 |
Bal |
| Buffalo |
-6.0 |
New England |
+2.6 |
BUF |
-11.6 |
-9 |
Buf |
+2.6 |
BUF |
| Cincinnati |
+4.4 |
Kansas City |
+4.9 |
CIN |
-3.5 |
-2 |
Cin |
+1.5 |
Cin |
| Denver |
+8.6 |
St. Louis |
-4.1 |
STL |
+9.7 |
+3.5 |
Stl |
+6.2 |
STL |
| New Orleans |
-10.2 |
Cleveland |
-4.3 |
NO |
-8.9 |
-3 |
No |
+5.9 |
NO |
| N.Y. Jets |
-7.2 |
Tennessee |
-7.6 |
TEN |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
Nyj |
+0.1 |
|
| Philadelphia |
-4.9 |
Houston |
-10.7 |
HOU |
+2.8 |
+4.5 |
Phi |
+1.7 |
|
| Seattle |
+11.3 |
Detroit |
-5.7 |
DET |
+14.0 |
+6.5 |
Det |
+7.5 |
DET |
| Chicago |
+3.6 |
Green Bay |
-2.9 |
GB |
+3.5 |
+3.5 |
|
+0.0 |
|
| Dallas |
+1.1 |
Jacksonville |
+5.8 |
DAL |
-7.7 |
-2.5 |
Dal |
+5.2 |
DAL |
| San Francisco |
-11.8 |
Arizona |
-4.8 |
SF |
-10.0 |
-8 |
Sf |
+2.0 |
SF |
| Indianapolis |
+12.0 |
N.Y. Giants |
+6.8 |
NYG |
+2.2 |
+3.5 |
Ind |
+1.3 |
|
| Minnesota |
-2.4 |
Washington |
+4.1 |
MIN |
-9.5 |
-4.5 |
Min |
+5.0 |
MIN |
| San Diego |
+6.6 |
Oakland |
-5.8 |
OAK |
+9.4 |
+3 |
Oak |
+6.4 |
OAK |
Analysis: New Orleans' season last year was a write-off with the hurricane Katrina relocation to San Antonio. They should be much improved in 2005 and added offensive stars like Drew Brees and Reggie Bush. Cleveland on the other hand may take a step backward is the thinking of many indicators.
Favor: New Orleans +3
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