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NFL 2004
Shouldn't you consider subscribing? Ninety-nine bucks for an entire season gets you
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
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Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
7-3 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
7-3 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
5-4 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
7-2 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
5-1 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
5-3 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
7-3 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
5-2 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
4-2 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
6-3 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
2-2 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-5 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
3-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
2-2 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
4-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
3-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
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Week 11: UPM
We have two simulation engines that play out each matchup thousands of times to come up with a selection and likely cover percentage for every game. While the 'second generation' Full Story engine is undoubtedly more sophisticated and presumed to be the better performer, the original UPM still has its value on the high end 65%+ games, where the lifetime record in live usage is now 64-37 (63%).
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times
using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated
score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have
covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to
the chances of each team covering.
NFL Week 11 , 2004
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Cover % |
| Atlanta at NY Giants |
+2.5 |
NY Giants |
70 % |
Analysis:
The 65%+ picks for the UPM are 10-6 on the season, and the New York Giants are the highest C.V. of the week. Since the simulations are run at the drive level, it is worth a quick check of how NYG gets such high marks. On offense both teams are equivalent: Atlanta has scored TD's on 20% of drives and FG's on another 11%, while NYG is 19% TD's and 12% FG's. On defense the Giants are better as they've allowed 19% TD's and 8% FG's to Atlanta's 23% TD and 8% FG. Of course Atlanta had the one very bad game against Kansas City. Still, the numbers tell you the line is out of whack here.
Favor: New York Giants +2.5
Also see:
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
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