Week 11: Cumulative Spread Margin
Also known as "Contrarian Bridgejumping", the CSM is a method geared primarily to contrarian thinkers who don't mind backing teams that often looked overmatched by their opponents.
If you are unfamiliar with the "Contrarian Bridgejumping" handicapping method, we suggest you read the following first:
As the name suggests, "Cumulative Spread Margin" involves totaling up how a team has performed in terms of net points against the lines on their games. For instance a team that won by eight while favored by three would accrue +5 points of CSM for the effort. On the other hand a team that lost by eight while favored by three would get a -11 CSM for that game.
Similar to the Turnover Difference Theory (another contrarian indicator), the CSM angle suggests playing the team with the BAD Cumulative Spread Margin in match-ups with a significant difference, which is defined as 6+ CSM points per game.
Away
CSM |
Away Team |
Line
(Home) |
Home Team |
Home
CSM |
Pick |
CSM Diff |
| 9.2 |
Chicago |
+7 |
N.Y. Jets |
.7 |
N.Y. Jets |
8.5 |
Analysis:
The Bears have had a great, some would say charmed, season to this point. They have the highest average spread margin of any team, with an average result of +9.2 points against the line! While some doubts emerged after the games against Arizona and then Miami, with the win over the Giants last week they are squarely back in the public's eye as the NFC team to beat. The Jets meanwhile continue to sneak up on teams, having just knocked off the Patriots to move to a solid 5-4 record. The CSM results show that while the Jets are on the positive side, this game still easily meets the minimum six point CSM difference requirements. Contrarian Bridgejumpers have often seen the best outcomes backing home underdogs, and the Jets seem 'live' again in this spot.
The best bet freebie this week is N.Y. Jets +7
STAFF PICKS hit 77% last week!
The staff picks include the selections of six different analysts (with five of them posting winning records on the season), and it also includes the full best bets for all the tools and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more, check out the Staff Picks page.
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Full CSM stats by matchup for every game can be seen on the CSM page.
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