Week 12: Drive Chart Dogs
Using drive chart stats to project score for upcoming games was the very first thing we did at TwoMinuteWarning back in 1997. Over the years underdogs picked to cover the spread by four plus point have been very powerful plays.
Cleveland at Minnesota
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
4.9 |
28 |
2:37 |
12% |
17% |
45% |
17% |
17.0 |
| MIN |
4.5 |
24 |
2:34 |
11% |
14% |
42% |
19% |
14.8 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CLE |
4.6 |
29 |
3:00 |
16% |
16% |
40% |
13% |
19.8 |
| MIN |
5.2 |
30 |
2:35 |
25% |
12% |
39% |
14% |
25.7 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
Cleveland
Minnesota |
21
16 |
Analysis:
Minnesota is on a winning streak, but the drive chart stats suggest that on a purely offense versus defense level the Browns are the better team and should win outright. On offense Cleveland manages almost a half yard extra per play, but defense may be the key as the Vikings have given up TD's on 25% of opponent drives to just 16% for the Browns.
Favor: Cleveland +4
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