Week 12: Play-by-Play Projections
We compile a number of different ratings from examining every play of every NFL game. For more background see the Case for Better Numbers article.
Play By Play Stats
- PSR: Play Success Rate - every play is graded as either a success or failure
- Big: percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
- Yds: adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
- EFR: Effectiveness rating. One number overall summary.
| Green Bay |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| GB - Offense |
39% |
8% |
3.9 |
70 |
43% |
8% |
5.6 |
93 |
| SEA - Defense |
+1% |
+0% |
+.4 |
+5 |
+1% |
-2% |
-.2 |
-1 |
| GB - Projection |
40% |
8% |
4.3 |
75 |
44% |
6% |
5.4 |
92 |
| Seattle |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| SEA - Offense |
37% |
11% |
3.6 |
67 |
43% |
8% |
5.7 |
84 |
| GB - Defense |
+4% |
-3% |
-.4 |
-2 |
+0% |
+3% |
+.4 |
+8 |
| SEA - Projection |
41% |
8% |
3.2 |
65 |
43% |
11% |
6.1 |
92 |
Projected Score (Play by Play)
| Team |
SCORE |
Green Bay
Seattle |
20
19 |
Analysis:
The Packers are coming off their arguably worst game of the season where they were crushed 35-0 by the Patriots at home. This makes for a prime rebound spot. Seattle is excited to be getting Alexander and Hasselbeck on the field again, but those two could be a little rusty. The play-by-play stats show the Packers should be able to run on the Seahawks, and defensively stopping the run has generally been a strength for Green Bay. An outright win is possible. Worried about the QB situation? Don't be, Favre will play as always.
The best bet freebie this week is Green Bay +10
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2005 |
4-Yr W% |
| Trends |
43-26 |
62% |
| DC/TO |
35-24 |
59% |
| Injury Report |
37-26 |
59% |
| Drive Charts |
36-25 |
59% |
| Inside the 20 |
34-24 |
59% |
| Turnovers |
33-24 |
58% |
| Regressor |
17-13 |
57% |
| Full Story |
30-25 |
55% |
| CSM |
18-16 |
53% |
| Last 5 UPM |
25-24 |
51% |
| Play-By-Play |
27-33 |
45% |
| UPM |
27-37 |
42% |
2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
Week Ten: DC/TO
Week Eleven: CSM
Week Twelve: Play-by-Play
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
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