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Week Twelve
DC + DC/TO
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| DEN |
5.6 |
36 |
3:04 |
18% |
17% |
32% |
18% |
21.3 |
| CHI |
4.5 |
24 |
2:18 |
13% |
14% |
45% |
19% |
16.2 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| DEN |
5.6 |
37 |
3:13 |
25% |
17% |
33% |
17% |
27.3 |
| CHI |
5.2 |
28 |
2:32 |
16% |
15% |
49% |
13% |
19.5 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
DCTO* |
Denver
Chicago |
18
23 |
19
29 |
Analysis: the basic DC+DC/TO theory is that the best plays are when you start with a drive chart prediction that favors a team and the margin of covering increases on the DC/TO prediction. What this is saying that the team projected to cover from the straight Drive Chart overlay has actually had the worst of it in comparison on the turnovers so far. So in this case you have the Bears winning by five on the straight DC, but by ten with the turnover difference theory added in. Throw in you have the public moving back onto Denver after back to back wins while Chicago is losing support after the loss to Seattle, and you have the makings of a good thing.
Favor: Chicago -2.5
Wondering what the hype is all about? Check out:
What the press says about TwoMinuteWarning
Comparing NFL Handicapping Services
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2006 |
5-Yr W% |
| Inside the 20 |
45-28 |
62% |
| Trends |
52-36 |
59% |
| DC/TO |
44-33 |
57% |
| Injury Report |
45-34 |
57% |
| Full Story |
43-33 |
57% |
| Turnovers |
39-29 |
57% |
| Drive Charts |
42-36 |
54% |
| CSM |
23-20 |
53% |
| Bet Tracker |
16-14 |
53% |
| Regressor |
23-21 |
52% |
| Last 5 UPM |
30-32 |
48% |
Subscribers get access to the Best Bet selections of all the features every week. Just one of many subscriber benefits.
To learn more about TMW's high end content, check out reasons to subscribe.
2007 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Bet Tracker
Week Four: UPM
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Contrarian Consensus
Week Seven: Inside the 20
Week Eight: Play By Play
Week Nine: Falcon PP's
Week Ten: Last 5 UPM
Week Eleven: Turnovers
Samples from past seasons can be seen via clicking on the links below:
2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
Week Ten: DC/TO
Week Eleven: CSM
Week Twelve: Play-by-Play
Week Thirteen: UPM
Week Fourteen: Coach Stats
Week Fifteen: Regressor
Week Sixteen: Game Pages
Week Seventeen: TMW PP's
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
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