“If you have the time, TwoMinuteWarning has the stat.”
-- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
more quotes
Hot Pages
Subscription Info
Full Story Engine
DC/TO Predictor
Evaluating Injuries
Home Field Advantage studies
Picks W-L Records
|
NFL Predictions
|
If you are a subscriber:
Login Here
|
$99
NFL 2004
Shouldn't you consider subscribing? Ninety-nine bucks for an entire season gets you
fantastic picks
ultimate matchup analysis
killer handicapping tools
the best research bar none
|
|
 |
NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
If you are not seeing the current week after that time, your browser is loading a cached page (a common problem for AOL users). Try hitting 'refresh' or contact your ISP.
Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
8-4 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
7-5 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
5-6 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
7-4 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
6-1 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
6-4 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
8-4 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
7-2 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
6-2 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
6-4 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
4-2 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-5 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
5-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
3-3 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
4-6 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
5-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
|
Week 13: Regressor
Regression is a common approach to uncovering relationships between variables and outcomes, and this season we have launched two features that use regression to predict sides and totals.
Taking regression to the numbers, we build statistical models under a multi-stage scheme to predict future performance. There are four main stat modules, looking at:
- Drive Chart Stats
- Play-By-Play Ratings
- Down-By-Down Stats
- Directional Rushing Numbers
This 'regressor' was designed to optimize high overlays of 4.0+ points.
| Match-up |
Regressor
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Overlay |
| Tennessee at Indianapolis |
-20.6 |
-10.5 |
Indianapolis |
10.1 |
Analysis:
The Tennessee at Indianapolis game qualifies on the overlay cutoff for this regressor engine, based on the multi-stage, multi-module system.
Favor: Indianapolis -11 (line has gone up)
Also see:
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
|
