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Week 13: UPM
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times
using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated
score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have
covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to
the chances of each team covering.
NFL Week 13 , 2006
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Cover % |
| Baltimore at Cincinnati |
-3 |
Baltimore |
57 % |
| Arizona at St. Louis |
-6.5 |
Arizona |
52 % |
| Atlanta at Washington |
-1.5 |
Washington |
50 % |
| Dallas at N.Y. Giants |
+4 |
N.Y. Giants |
55 % |
| Detroit at New England |
-13.5 |
Detroit |
55 % |
| Indianapolis at Tennessee |
+7.5 |
Indianapolis |
52 % |
| Jacksonville at Miami |
-1.5 |
Jacksonville |
59 % |
| Kansas City at Cleveland |
+5.5 |
Cleveland |
60 % |
| Minnesota at Chicago |
-9.5 |
Chicago |
53 % |
| N.Y. Jets at Green Bay |
+1.5 |
Green Bay |
59 % |
| San Diego at Buffalo |
+6 |
San Diego |
54 % |
| San Francisco at New Orleans |
-7 |
New Orleans |
54 % |
| Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh |
-8 |
Pittsburgh |
52 % |
| Houston at Oakland |
-3 |
Houston |
53 % |
| Seattle at Denver |
-3 |
Denver |
57 % |
| Carolina at Philadelphia |
+3 |
Philadelphia |
73 % |
Analysis:
The UPM isn't the hotshot predictor these days that it was when it first came on the scene (who can forget the magical 2000 season) but one thing does still hold true: when a team gets a confidence score of 70%+ you should take heed. Now sure often the high percentage plays come with some kind of major injury attached (which the UPM does not adjust for, using pure season to date drive stats for teams in the simulations), but you have to ask yourself whether any one player is worth a 20%+ change in the expected outcome.
McNabb is done for the year but Garcia looked all right versus the Colts, it was the defense that was the problem. The Panthers meanwhile are fresh from a loss as a road favorite to the hapless Redskins. If the Eagles can win this one they are back in the hunt in the "parity central" NFC. Monday night needs to bring out the best in these guys.
The best bet freebie this week is Philadelphia +3
STAFF PICKS hit 63% against the SPREAD last week!
The staff picks include the selections of six different analysts (with three of them hitting better than 63% on the season), and it also includes the full best bets for all the tools and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more, check out the Staff Picks page.
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