Week 14: UPM Money-Line Picks
The "Ultimate Prediction Machine" was our original game simulator based on drive chart stats. While the primary focus was spread based predictions, it can also be used for calculating "fair odds" for money-line play.
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
Money-Line Analysis
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times
using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. We then
calculate an expected win percentage for each team and a fair value
money-line, which can be compared to the official money line odds.
NFL Week 14 , 2005
| Team |
Win % |
UPM M/L |
Money Line |
ML Pick |
| Chicago |
40 % |
+149 |
+220 |
Chicago |
| Pittsburgh |
59 % |
-149 |
-240 |
|
| Cleveland |
26 % |
+277 |
+780 |
Cleveland |
| Cincinnati |
73 % |
-277 |
-860 |
|
| Houston |
27 % |
+263 |
+245 |
|
| Tennessee |
72 % |
-263 |
-265 |
|
| Indianapolis |
69 % |
-223 |
-331 |
|
| Jacksonville |
30 % |
+223 |
+301 |
Jacksonville |
| New England |
48 % |
+107 |
-176 |
|
| Buffalo |
51 % |
-107 |
+166 |
Buffalo |
| Oakland |
59 % |
-146 |
-135 |
|
| N.Y. Jets |
40 % |
+146 |
+125 |
|
| St. Louis |
45 % |
+119 |
+262 |
St. Louis |
| Minnesota |
54 % |
-119 |
-282 |
|
| Tampa Bay |
33 % |
+198 |
+197 |
|
| Carolina |
66 % |
-198 |
-217 |
|
| N.Y. Giants |
60 % |
-153 |
-265 |
|
| Philadelphia |
39 % |
+153 |
+245 |
Philadelphia |
| San Francisco |
13 % |
+663 |
+1400 |
San Francisco |
| Seattle |
86 % |
-663 |
-1700 |
|
| Washington |
51 % |
-104 |
-169 |
|
| Arizona |
48 % |
+104 |
+159 |
Arizona |
| Baltimore |
24 % |
+313 |
+990 |
Baltimore |
| Denver |
75 % |
-313 |
-1290 |
|
| Kansas City |
43 % |
+128 |
+132 |
|
| Dallas |
56 % |
-128 |
-142 |
|
| Miami |
27 % |
+267 |
+850 |
Miami |
| San Diego |
72 % |
-267 |
-1150 |
|
| Detroit |
41 % |
+143 |
+225 |
Detroit |
| Green Bay |
59 % |
-143 |
-245 |
|
| New Orleans |
33 % |
+194 |
+540 |
New Orleans |
| Atlanta |
66 % |
-194 |
-600 |
|
Note -- the "picks" in parentheses are small edge (10%-19% EV), while the other picks are large edge (20%+ EV).
Large Edge Plays:
Chicago +220
Cleveland +780
Jacksonville +300
Buffalo +165
St. Louis +260
Philadelphia +245
San Francisco +1400
Arizona +160
Baltimore +990
Miami +850
Detroit +225
New Orleans +540
Analysis: With the huge success rate of favorites this season, we are reaching the point where underdogs are "due" for some big upsets. Typically there may be 4-6 underdogs seen as good value on the straight up lines, but this week it's 12 of 16! Now may be the time to jump on board...
What do you think? Make your opinion known on the Message Boards
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