Week 14: Coach Stats
TMW President Scott has been looking into whether a head coach's situational spread records can have predictive value...
Building coach stats databases is easy. How to use the stats is the question. For one thing do you want to look at a coach's complete history with all teams or just the current team? Do you want to go back through the lifetime of the coach or just say the last five years?
Many questions, no simple answers.
I've elected to use only current team stats which means of course that many coaches have little data to look at. Here are some games in week fourteen with notable coach spread records.
NFL Week 14 , 2006
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Away Coach Notes |
Home Coach Notes |
| New England at Miami |
+3.5 |
Belichick: 17-9 as away favorite, 18-9 away off a spread loss |
Saban: 1-5 home after a loss |
| Tennessee at Houston |
-1.5 |
Fisher: 59-35 as underdog, 40-24 as away dog, 31-19 away off a spread win |
Kubiak: 0-1 as favorite |
| Atlanta at Tampa Bay |
+3 |
Mora Jr: 3-5 as away favorite, 4-9 away off win |
Gruden: 6-3 as home dog, 10-6 home off loss |
Analysis:
None of these games have complete standout situations going on both sides. Some of the best coach plays are:
Belichick: 14-3 away off a loss
Billick: 33-15 as home favorite
Fox: 25-8 as an underdog
Smith: 13-7 as favorite
Parcells: 11-2 home off a loss
Shanahan: 30-18 as underdog
Del Rio: 9-2 home off a spread loss
Reid: 21-11 away off spread win
Cowher: 38-23 home off spread loss
Schottenheimer: 45-30 overall with San Diego
Holmgren: 7-16 as away favorite
Gruden: 5-15 away off a win
Fisher: 59-35 as underdog
But I would think you want a pattern in agreement from the other coach.
To me the best of the three highlighted games is Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Mora Jr. has not seen success with Atlanta on the road off a win or as the favorite while Gruden's Tampa teams have been good bouncing back at home.
The best bet freebie this week is Tampa Bay +3
STAFF PICKS RED HOT hitting 88% against the spread last week!
The staff picks include the selections of six different analysts (with four of them hitting better than 62% on the season), and it also includes the full best bets for all the tools and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more, check out the Staff Picks page.
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