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NFL 2004
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
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Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
9-5 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
9-5 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
5-7 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
8-4 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
7-2 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
7-5 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
9-5 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
7-3 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
7-3 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
6-6 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
6-2 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-5 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
6-2 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
4-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
5-7 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
6-5 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
|
Week 15: Play-By-Play Ratings
There is no more refined level of detail possible in the game of football than to look at each individual play of a game and plot results. For a detailed look at the subject, see the Better Numbers article.
| Denver |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| DEN - Offense |
46% |
10% |
4.1 |
83 |
47% |
10% |
7.2 |
109 |
| KC - Defense |
-2% |
+3% |
+.5 |
+2 |
+3% |
+5% |
+1.7 |
+23 |
| DEN: Projection |
44% |
13% |
4.6 |
85 |
50% |
15% |
8.9 |
132 |
| Kansas City |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| KC - Offense |
55% |
14% |
4.7 |
105 |
49% |
10% |
7.2 |
115 |
| DEN - Defense |
-2% |
+0% |
-.4 |
-3 |
-9% |
+0% |
-.7 |
-22 |
| KC: Projection |
53% |
14% |
4.3 |
102 |
40% |
10% |
6.5 |
93 |
Projected Score (Play by Play)
| Team |
SCORE |
Denver
Kansas City |
27
22 |
Analysis:
One team in the playoff race, one team out. No matter. A division rivals match-up is the highest underdog overlay this week. If you watched the most recent monday game, you know that the Kansas City offense is good enough. You also know that defense is not only a weakness, but at this late stage of the season, potentially something that is getting soft. There are contrasts evident in the PBP stats: Kansas City should run the ball better, but Denver should pass the ball with more success. Denver's pass defense is the best on a play by play basis, with a minus twenty-two EFR. If you look at the yards per play attempt it's Denver on both counts, with passing a giant 8.9 to 6.5 projected edge. The forecast has Denver by five. Agreed.
Favor: Denver +1
Also see:
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
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