Week 15: Regressor
Taking regression to the numbers, we build statistical models under a multi-stage scheme to predict future performance. There are three main stat modules, looking at:
- Drive Chart Stats
- Play-By-Play Ratings
- Down-By-Down Stats
Drive Chart Stats Regressions
| Match-up |
Regressor
Value |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
RegVal |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
-4.02 |
-8.5 |
San Diego |
4.02 |
Play-By-Play Regressions
| Match-up |
Regressor
Value |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
RegVal |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
-4.00 |
-8.5 |
San Diego |
4.00 |
Down-By-Down Regressions
| Match-up |
Regressor
Value |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
RegVal |
| Kansas City at San Diego |
-5.37 |
-8.5 |
San Diego |
5.37 |
Analysis:
San Diego is picked by all three regressor modules and with very healthy RegVal's (which could be viewed as offering better than four points of line value in each case). The Chargers are an easy team to back since they are clearly among the NFL's elite this season. Kansas City does have more pressure on them to win but even though the Chargers have clinched a playoff spot they are fighting for the always important home field advantage.
The best bet freebie this week is San Diego -8.5
STAFF PICKS still RED HOT hitting 69% against the spread last week!
The staff picks include the selections of six different analysts (with four of them hitting better than 62% on the season), and it also includes the full best bets for all the tools and a nifty summary sheet for help with your own handicapping. To learn more, check out the Staff Picks page.
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*** College Football Bowl Games
Be prepared for all the triumphs, all the upsets, and all the excitement of college football's bowl season. With 32 games going off in 21 days, get your college football lines at Bodog.com!
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2005 |
4-Yr W% |
| Trends |
43-26 |
62% |
| DC/TO |
35-24 |
59% |
| Injury Report |
37-26 |
59% |
| Drive Charts |
36-25 |
59% |
| Inside the 20 |
34-24 |
59% |
| Turnovers |
33-24 |
58% |
| Regressor |
17-13 |
57% |
| Full Story |
30-25 |
55% |
| CSM |
18-16 |
53% |
| Last 5 UPM |
25-24 |
51% |
| Play-By-Play |
27-33 |
45% |
| UPM |
27-37 |
42% |
2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
Week Ten: DC/TO
Week Eleven: CSM
Week Twelve: Play-by-Play
Week Thirteen: UPM
Week Fourteen: Coach Stats
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
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