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Week Fifteen
Mysterious "N" Monster Parlay
This week's best bet is unusual -- coming courtesy of the "Mysterious Mr. N" who has hit some big parlay tickets already this season and checks in with his special approach to handicapping, complete with this week's primo parlay ticket. In general TMW does not advocate parlays since these can be offered at brutal odds and are demanding on bankrolls for their streakiness to begin with. Nevertheless, Mr. N will offer up his thoughts...
Interview with a parlay player
TMW: What makes you interested in parlays first of all as opposed to simple per play action?
Mysterious "N": I believe in powerful fortune. Not luck exactly but some days you have prosperity in abundance, other days your actions will not bring back the worthy results. Parlays allow you to tap into this by maximizing your gains on the prosperous days, and minimizing the pain of the hard luck days.
TMW: Okay...not that I would agree with that, but we'll move on. How do you select your parlay plays?
Mysterious "N": I have been using the Falcon PP's for four years now I think. Teams also are subject to prosperous/dangerous days and the PP scores show this all too clearly. I watch for teams on streaks where their ratings are going up several games in a row, or on the flip side declining several games in a row. Then when these kind of things coincide on two teams matched up you have a great expectation that the prosperous team will have a bad day, the down team will rise up.
TMW: Sounds a little like the "new high" and "new low" theory that others have discussed, but only taken over a span of several games.
Mysterious "N": Yes. I also pay attention to an out of whack number. If a team has typically been scoring 105, 98,102 or something and then gets a 127 say I will view that as a bad omen for the team the next week. However I care much more about three and four game patterns.
TMW: Fair enough. So give us the rundown on this week's parlay tickets.
Mysterious "N": Better than that I will go through each game.
Denver at Houston - last week I was on Denver big time following their four game slide in ratings (117-114-96-83) and they bounced back with a huge 127. That makes them sketchy but Houston is on a three game climb (92-93-117) and so I would want to go against them too. No play.
Cincinnati at San Francisco - both teams on a three game slide. No play.
Seattle at Carolina - Seattle on three game climb, Carolina on an up-down swing (94-84..97-67..105-76) so may come up but a little too iffy to be parlay included. No play.
Buffalo at Cleveland - Bills on four game climb (77-83-101-105). Cleveland very stable (100-104-95-101) but ready for big number I feel. CLEVELAND!
Tennessee at Kansas City - Titans had four game slide followed by jump back vs Houston and now small slide vs SD but look in danger of another 3-4 game slide pattern. Kansas City four game slide to new low (116-88-85-63) and ready to jump up. KANSAS CITY!
Baltimore at Miami - Baltimore had predictable down game after out of whack 121 vs NE. Miami all over the place. No play.
New York Jets at New England - neither team with obvious pattern lately. No play.
Arizona at New Orleans - both teams mid pattern. No play.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh - Jags on four game climb (105-109-114-123). Pitt now five games in a row below a back to back 110-127 and ready for big one. PITTSBURGH!
Green Bay at St. Louis - both teams moving around. No play.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Atlanta on three game slide but coach just quit. Too unpredictable. No play.
Indianapolis at Oakland - Colts on 97-115-105-121 moving around streak. Oakland also unclear. No Play.
Philadelphia at Dallas - Philadelphia back to back 97's after the 129 NE game. Dallas on three game slide. But philly hard to read. No play.
Detroit at San Diego - Detroit had big 110 last week rebounding predictably after the super low 69. SD consistent 110-114-108 string. SD the better play but not quite ready to parlay it.
Washington at NY Giants - Washington good game last week after three game slide. Giants on three game climb (70-104-108). WASHINGTON!
Chicago at Minnesota - both teams on slides. No play.
Mysterious "N" Recommends:
*** FOUR TEAM PARLAY TICKET ***
CLEVELAND -5.5
KANSAS CITY +4
PITTSBURGH -4
WASHINGTON +4.5
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