Week 16: Game Pages
Carolina at Atlanta
For a legend of our terminology, and an explanation of how we create the
following data, please see
The case for better numbers.
Drive Chart Stats
| OFFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CAR |
5.0 |
26 |
2:24 |
13% |
13% |
53% |
15% |
15.9 |
| ATL |
5.1 |
30 |
2:44 |
18% |
13% |
43% |
11% |
20.5 |
| DEFENSE |
Play |
Dyds |
TOP |
TD |
FG |
Punt |
T/O |
Pts |
| CAR |
4.7 |
26 |
2:35 |
17% |
13% |
53% |
10% |
19.6 |
| ATL |
5.3 |
31 |
2:44 |
20% |
14% |
44% |
15% |
21.8 |
Projected Scores (Drive Charts)
| Team |
DC* |
DCTO* |
Carolina
Atlanta |
17
20 |
22
16 |
Play By Play Stats
| Carolina |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| CAR - Offense |
45% |
11% |
4.1 |
82 |
43% |
7% |
5.7 |
87 |
| ATL - Defense |
-2% |
+1% |
-.3 |
-1 |
+2% |
-1% |
+.6 |
+10 |
| CAR - Projection |
43% |
12% |
3.8 |
81 |
45% |
6% |
6.3 |
97 |
| Atlanta |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
| ATL - Offense |
44% |
15% |
5.0 |
88 |
39% |
9% |
5.3 |
83 |
| CAR - Defense |
-6% |
+2% |
-.1 |
-6 |
-5% |
-1% |
-.7 |
-12 |
| ATL - Projection |
38% |
17% |
4.9 |
82 |
34% |
8% |
4.6 |
71 |
Projected Score (Play by Play)
| Team |
SCORE |
Carolina
Atlanta |
23
16 |
Ultimate Prediction Machine
| Matchup |
Line |
Pick |
Cover % |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
-6 |
Carolina |
56 % |
Turnovers
| Away |
Line |
Home |
Net
INT |
Net
FUM |
Net
T/O |
INT
Pick |
FUM
Pick |
T/O
Pick |
| Carolina |
-6 |
Atlanta |
-6 |
-11 |
-17 |
- |
CAR |
CAR |
| Team |
Def. Int |
Def. Fum |
Off. Int |
Off. Fum |
Net T/O |
| Carolina |
11 |
7 |
17 |
10 |
-9 |
| Atlanta |
12 |
13 |
12 |
5 |
+8 |
|
Carolina at Atlanta (-6)
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Summary:
|
Component
|
Outlook
|
Drive Charts
DC/TO
Play-By-Play
U.P.M.
Turnovers
|
Carolina 17-20
Carolina 22-16
Carolina 23-16
Carolina 56 %
Carolina
|
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Analysis:
The game pages show a variety of different TMW tools (but not all of them) for a given game. It's not necessarily a case of looking for the super consensus where everything points the same way, but it's hard to ignore the rare game where that is the case. Is it crazy to back a downtrodden, backup-QB starting, barely clinging to playoff hopes team on the road facing a side with a more legitimate playoff chance? We'll find out.
The best bet freebie this week is Carolina +6.5
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Best Bet Performance Records
The "Best Bet" column was introduced for the 2002 coverage, allowing feature editors to highlight one play as the best option of the week (editors can elect not to provide a best bet if none seem worthy of the honor).
| Feature |
2002-2005 |
4-Yr W% |
| Trends |
43-26 |
62% |
| DC/TO |
35-24 |
59% |
| Injury Report |
37-26 |
59% |
| Drive Charts |
36-25 |
59% |
| Inside the 20 |
34-24 |
59% |
| Turnovers |
33-24 |
58% |
| Regressor |
17-13 |
57% |
| Full Story |
30-25 |
55% |
| CSM |
18-16 |
53% |
| Last 5 UPM |
25-24 |
51% |
| Play-By-Play |
27-33 |
45% |
| UPM |
27-37 |
42% |
2006 Season Archive
Week One: Angles
Week Two: Trends
Week Three: Tim's Smorgasboard
Week Four: Bet Tracker
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Turnovers
Week Seven: Falcon PP's
Week Eight: Last 5 UPM
Week Nine: Drive Stats
Week Ten: DC/TO
Week Eleven: CSM
Week Twelve: Play-by-Play
Week Thirteen: UPM
Week Fourteen: Coach Stats
Week Fifteen: Regressor
2005 Season Archive
Week One: CSM
Week Two: Angles
Week Three: Week That Was
Week Four: Stats Force
Week Five: DC/TO
Week Six: Inside the 20
Week Seven: Play by Play
Week Eight: UPM
Week Nine: Trends
Week Ten: Turnovers
Week Eleven: Last 5 Weeks UPM
Week Twelve: Drive Charts
Week Thirteen: Bet Tracker
Week Fourteen: Money-Line
Week Fifteen: Injury Report
Week Sixteen: Red Zone Totals
Week Seventeen: Regressor
2004 Season Archive
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player/Team Connection
Week Seventeen: Last 5 UPM
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