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$99
NFL 2004
Shouldn't you consider subscribing? Ninety-nine bucks for an entire season gets you
fantastic picks
ultimate matchup analysis
killer handicapping tools
the best research bar none
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NFL Best Bets
- Updated every Wednesday by 3pm Pacific Time -
If you are not seeing the current week after that time, your browser is loading a cached page (a common problem for AOL users). Try hitting 'refresh' or contact your ISP.
Weekly Best Bets
Each week the person in charge of a feature can submit a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Feature |
2004 |
2002-03 |
02/03 W% |
| Trends |
10-5 |
21-9 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
9-6 |
14-6 |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
5-7 |
20-9 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
10-4 |
19-10 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
7-4 |
19-10 |
66% |
| DC |
8-6 |
17-10 |
63% |
| Full Story |
10-6 |
11-7 |
61% |
| CSM |
7-3 |
8-6 |
57% |
| PBP |
7-5 |
13-12 |
54% |
| UPM |
7-7 |
15-16 |
48% |
| Last Five Upm |
7-3 |
11-14 |
44% |
| Angles |
4-5 |
5-11 |
31% |
| O/U Regressor |
6-4 |
New |
n/a |
| Stats Force |
4-6 |
New |
n/a |
| Square Money |
6-8 |
New |
n/a |
| Regressor |
7-6 |
New |
n/a |
| Gameplan |
0-1 |
New |
n/a |
| Week That Was |
0-3 |
New |
n/a |
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Week 17: Last Five Weeks UPM
We have two simulation engines that play out each matchup thousands of times to come up with a selection and likely cover percentage for every game. While the 'second generation' Full Story engine is undoubtedly more sophisticated and presumed to be the better performer, the original UPM still has its value on the high end 65%+ games, and the "last five weeks" data set (instead of using season-to-date data) probably provides more accurate assessments in these topsy turvy NFL days.
The Ultimate Prediction Machine!
The Ultimate Prediction Machine simulates each NFL matchup five-thousand times
using our exclusive TwoMinuteWarning Drive Chart stats. Each simulated
score is compared against the line on the game to assess who would have
covered and the numbers are compiled to give a confidence value to
the chances of each team covering.
NFL Week 17 , 2004
| Matchup |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
Cover % |
| Minnesota at Washington |
+4.5 |
Washington |
79 % |
Analysis:
Minnesota has not played well over the last five weeks but still has the inside track to a playoff spot. Washington has not had the season that was hoped for by their fans and Joe Gibbs' admirers, and will not have Portis available. Still the simulations show a pronounced confidence value in the Redskins covering the number.
Favor: Washington +4.5
Also see:
Week One: Trends
Week Two: Week That Was
Week Three: Angles
Week Four: Drive Chart Dogs
Week Five: Inside the 20
Week Six: Square Money
Week Seven: DC/TO
Week Eight: Turnover Difference
Week Nine: CSM
Week Ten: Stats Force
Week Eleven: UPM
Week Twelve: O/U Regressor
Week Thirteen: Regressor
Week Fourteen: Injury Report
Week Fifteen: Play-By-Play Ratings
Week Sixteen: Player Projections
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