*** sample from last season ***
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Week 17: Regressor
Taking regression to the numbers, we build statistical models under a multi-stage scheme to predict future performance.
There are four main stat modules, looking at:
- Drive Chart Stats
- Play-By-Play Ratings
- Down-By-Down Stats
- Directional Rushing Numbers
We present whichever of these modules is most applicable in a given stage of the season.
Play-By-Play Regressions
This 'regressor' was designed to optimize high RegVal games of .40 or more.
| Match-up |
Regressor
Line |
Line
(home) |
Pick |
RegVal |
| New Orleans at Tampa Bay |
+0.86 |
-14 |
New Orleans |
0.86 |
| Houston at San Francisco |
+0.67 |
+1.5 |
Houston |
0.67 |
| Chicago at Minnesota |
+0.46 |
-3 |
Chicago |
0.46 |
| Arizona at Indianapolis |
+0.32 |
-7 |
Arizona |
0.32 |
| Carolina at Atlanta |
+0.28 |
+4.5 |
Carolina |
0.28 |
| N.Y. Giants at Oakland |
-0.14 |
+8 |
Oakland |
0.14 |
| Baltimore at Cleveland |
+0.12 |
+3 |
Baltimore |
0.12 |
| St. Louis at Dallas |
+0.12 |
-12.5 |
St. Louis |
0.12 |
| Tennessee at Jacksonville |
+0.07 |
-3.5 |
Tennessee |
0.07 |
| Seattle at Green Bay |
-0.03 |
-3 |
Green Bay |
0.03 |
| Denver at San Diego |
+0.03 |
-9 |
Denver |
0.03 |
| Buffalo at N.Y. Jets |
+0.02 |
+1 |
Buffalo |
0.02 |
| Miami at New England |
|
Off |
|
|
| Detroit at Pittsburgh |
|
Off |
|
|
| Washington at Philadelphia |
|
Off |
|
|
| Cincinnati at Kansas City |
|
Off |
|
|
Analysis: The high RegVal game is New Orleans at Tampa Bay where the regressor projects the Saints have an excellent chance to cover the huge line. Tampa in important game for playoff positioning versus New Orleans team ready to go on a long vacation has perhaps shifted the line too high?
Favor: New Orleans +14
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