Week 17: TMW PP's
TMW PP's: Jacksonville at Kansas City (-2.5 )
PSR: 'Play Success Rate' - every play is graded as either a success of failure
Big: Percentage of plays that went for big gains...10+ yards for a run, 20+ for a pass
Yds: Adjusted yards per play, including penalties and excluding non-plays
EFR: 'Effectiveness rating' - a one number overall summary
Stats: This is the projected score based on the stats. This column lets us know who 'should' have won.
| Jacksonville |
Offense |
Defense |
| Rushing |
Passing |
Rushing |
Passing |
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
Score |
Stats |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
| 16 |
NE |
-2.5 |
21-24 |
32-27 |
31% |
9% |
6.5 |
63 |
46% |
12% |
7.6 |
130 |
56% |
4% |
4.2 |
104 |
60% |
4% |
5.6 |
104 |
| 15 |
@TEN |
-3.5 |
17-24 |
21-3 |
51% |
14% |
4.6 |
94 |
43% |
9% |
5.0 |
60 |
20% |
7% |
2.8 |
33 |
33% |
6% |
3.1 |
55 |
| 14 |
IND |
+2 |
44-17 |
25-26 |
58% |
33% |
9.6 |
161 |
43% |
0% |
4.6 |
56 |
55% |
0% |
1.7 |
90 |
42% |
9% |
6.1 |
103 |
| 13 |
@MIA |
+1.5 |
24-10 |
38-13 |
50% |
12% |
5.0 |
92 |
48% |
16% |
6.6 |
122 |
52% |
11% |
3.1 |
100 |
42% |
4% |
5.2 |
68 |
| 12 |
@BUF |
-3 |
24-27 |
23-20 |
51% |
24% |
5.6 |
106 |
44% |
7% |
3.8 |
82 |
39% |
9% |
3.1 |
69 |
53% |
7% |
6.7 |
93 |
| 11 |
NYG |
-3.5 |
26-10 |
38-6 |
43% |
8% |
3.7 |
74 |
57% |
9% |
8.0 |
145 |
33% |
0% |
1.0 |
40 |
38% |
7% |
4.9 |
63 |
| 10 |
HOU |
-10.5 |
10-13 |
13-12 |
44% |
17% |
4.7 |
100 |
37% |
13% |
5.5 |
47 |
47% |
8% |
3.1 |
65 |
34% |
7% |
3.6 |
70 |
| 9 |
TEN |
-9 |
37-7 |
37-3 |
43% |
23% |
5.7 |
100 |
45% |
17% |
7.0 |
141 |
46% |
3% |
3.3 |
63 |
25% |
5% |
4.1 |
28 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
+6 |
13-6 |
8-15 |
45% |
17% |
4.3 |
82 |
22% |
6% |
4.2 |
44 |
29% |
0% |
3.0 |
41 |
39% |
7% |
4.2 |
75 |
| 7 |
@HOU |
-10 |
7-27 |
6-39 |
40% |
12% |
4.0 |
92 |
28% |
0% |
3.7 |
56 |
50% |
9% |
4.1 |
93 |
50% |
6% |
6.1 |
116 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
-7 |
41-0 |
31-0 |
47% |
11% |
4.5 |
89 |
47% |
9% |
6.4 |
126 |
51% |
6% |
3.6 |
70 |
33% |
7% |
2.1 |
6 |
| |
| Avg. |
|
-4 |
24-15 |
24-14 |
45% |
16% |
5.3 |
95 |
41% |
8% |
5.7 |
91 |
43% |
5% |
3.0 |
69 |
40% |
6% |
4.7 |
71 |
| Kansas City |
Offense |
Defense |
| Rushing |
Passing |
Rushing |
Passing |
| Week |
Opp |
Line |
Score |
Stats |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
PSR |
Big |
Yds |
EFR |
| 16 |
@OAK |
-6.5 |
20-9 |
19-14 |
45% |
16% |
3.8 |
72 |
40% |
4% |
4.8 |
85 |
45% |
25% |
4.6 |
100 |
42% |
2% |
4.4 |
54 |
| 15 |
@SD |
+8.5 |
9-20 |
21-3 |
47% |
10% |
4.2 |
76 |
36% |
2% |
3.2 |
61 |
61% |
15% |
7.1 |
117 |
16% |
4% |
3.0 |
0 |
| 14 |
BAL |
-3 |
10-20 |
11-38 |
34% |
7% |
4.3 |
55 |
45% |
9% |
4.5 |
72 |
56% |
6% |
2.6 |
84 |
57% |
14% |
10.4 |
139 |
| 13 |
@CLE |
-5.5 |
28-31 |
34-47 |
51% |
6% |
4.0 |
80 |
68% |
9% |
8.3 |
148 |
55% |
14% |
5.1 |
113 |
60% |
9% |
8.2 |
148 |
| 12 |
DEN |
+1 |
19-10 |
38-7 |
56% |
15% |
5.3 |
112 |
48% |
8% |
6.7 |
100 |
35% |
7% |
2.0 |
50 |
50% |
7% |
4.7 |
86 |
| 11 |
OAK |
-9.5 |
17-13 |
35-16 |
66% |
19% |
5.5 |
133 |
38% |
6% |
5.1 |
88 |
44% |
9% |
3.4 |
61 |
48% |
10% |
6.7 |
100 |
| 10 |
@MIA |
-1.5 |
10-13 |
12-17 |
47% |
11% |
4.2 |
57 |
28% |
7% |
4.0 |
76 |
45% |
3% |
3.3 |
66 |
42% |
5% |
5.1 |
76 |
| 9 |
@STL |
+2.5 |
31-17 |
49-32 |
31% |
19% |
5.8 |
65 |
55% |
11% |
8.2 |
183 |
44% |
11% |
3.8 |
85 |
60% |
15% |
7.4 |
136 |
| 8 |
SEA |
-6 |
35-28 |
49-16 |
42% |
10% |
3.8 |
78 |
62% |
11% |
11.1 |
196 |
41% |
6% |
2.4 |
58 |
37% |
9% |
6.2 |
75 |
| 7 |
SD |
+5.5 |
30-27 |
38-17 |
46% |
13% |
4.4 |
96 |
41% |
10% |
7.0 |
120 |
39% |
17% |
4.2 |
86 |
42% |
6% |
5.0 |
93 |
| 6 |
@PIT |
+7 |
7-45 |
10-43 |
26% |
0% |
2.0 |
31 |
37% |
7% |
4.2 |
58 |
47% |
15% |
5.5 |
97 |
66% |
14% |
11.3 |
176 |
| 5 |
@ARI |
-3 |
23-20 |
12-27 |
30% |
0% |
0.8 |
17 |
45% |
5% |
6.3 |
109 |
29% |
11% |
2.4 |
51 |
51% |
11% |
6.5 |
110 |
| |
| Avg. |
|
-1 |
19-21 |
27-23 |
43% |
10% |
4.0 |
72 |
45% |
7% |
6.1 |
108 |
45% |
11% |
3.9 |
80 |
47% |
8% |
6.6 |
99 |
Analysis:
As a newly developed tool in its first year of live publication, it's safe to say it's still a learning process as to how to use the TMW PP's to make sound handicapping decisions. One thing that has been noticeable though is when teams have back-to-back games where the stats score shows them as the "wrong team loser" (denoted by the red stats score highlight) they often respond with an excellent game next out. Jacksonville as it turns out has had four games this season where they were the wrong team loser, and two where they were the wrong team winner. That's saying that by the stats they should be 10-5 on the year, not 8-7.
As it so happens, the two most recent games have been actual losses but "should have been wins" by the numbers. Again, it's a small sample trend to this point, but the "Double Wronged Team" angle looks promising.
The best bet freebie this week is Jacksonville +2.5
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