NFL Best Bets
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Each week the person in charge of a feature is on the hook for giving out a 'best bet' selection -- these have proved to be very potent!
| Category |
2003 |
2002 |
2-Yr W% |
| Trends |
10-7 |
11-2 |
70% |
| DC/TO |
14-6 |
n/a |
70% |
| Turnover Column |
11-5 |
9-4 |
69% |
| Injury Report |
12-6 |
7-4 |
66% |
| Inside the 20 |
11-4 |
8-6 |
66% |
|
Week 2: Week That Was
While we've run this feature off the main page for the past few years, this marks the first time that we've tried to create actual tools from research for this unique data set. Tim bravely steps up to the challenge of converting the findings to fortune.
There have been no less than four -count'em- four major research pieces regarding these 'week that was' stats, of which my giant great mind has contributed, er, one.
'Week That Was' research part I
'Week That Was' research part II (Subscriber Feature)
'Week That Was' research part III (Subscriber Feature)
'Week That Was' research part IV (Subscriber Feature)
...and now there's even a week two specialty piece courtesy of the Gaming Today column: Using Wk1 Stats
From this festive smorgasboard of choice tidbits, it's up to me to craft scientifically superior selections...to go boldly...ah, let's get on with it.
Top Selection
Choice Game #1: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-4.5)
Oakland at Pittsburgh
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Oakland |
27% |
9% |
2.7 |
50 |
47% |
7% |
6.8 |
100 |
14 |
| Pittsburgh |
54% |
6% |
3.2 |
84 |
48% |
4% |
5.4 |
104 |
31 |
Baltimore at Cleveland
| Matchup |
Rush
PSR |
Rush
Big |
Rush
Yds |
Rush
EFR |
Pass
PSR |
Pass
Big |
Pass
Yds |
Pass
EFR |
Stats
Score |
| Baltimore |
44% |
0% |
2.8 |
59 |
46% |
5% |
4.2 |
55 |
6 |
| Cleveland |
23% |
7% |
2.5 |
30 |
30% |
12% |
6.3 |
88 |
18 |
By my reckoning there are three signs of note to be noted here: first off, the Steelers won last week by a slender margin of 3 points, while the stats score had them piling it on to the tune of 31-14 over dem Silver-and-Black-and-Deckers. That falls under case study #4, and it's 61% for teams coming back as a dog. From the week two isolations, dogs that had a 50%+ PSR in week one are 15-4 next out. Finally, the Ravens had zero big plays rushing against Cleveland, and those teams are just 5-15 on the return in week deux.
Tim Says: Pittsburgh +4.5
Also see:
'Week That Was' picks for week two (Subscriber Feature)
Week One Best Bet Freebie: Trends
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