Week 3: Tim's Smorgasboard
TMW's occasional frontman Tim is settling in to his comfort zone. Or so he says...
1) The Angle
You've got three basic types of team coming into week three: 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Or as I like to say, happy, uncertain, depressed. Angle players love to mix and match so here's some records on this since 1990:
Week Three Matchups
Home Team
Record |
Away Team
Record |
Home W-L
as Favorite |
Home W-L
as Underdog |
| 0-2 |
0-2 |
11-11 |
1-3 |
| 0-2 |
1-1 |
4-5 |
3-6 |
| 0-2 |
2-0 |
1-5 |
3-2 |
| 1-1 |
0-2 |
11-11 |
3-1 |
| 1-1 |
1-1 |
18-21 |
5-10 |
| 1-1 |
2-0 |
6-6 |
3-7 |
| 2-0 |
0-2 |
5-4 |
0-0 |
| 2-0 |
1-1 |
13-15 |
1-0 |
| 2-0 |
2-0 |
12-5 |
0-2 |
Whatever. Does this mean anything? Only if you want it to, and I've got a deadline to meet so yes indeedy did you happen to notice the showdown at the OK Corral numbers? (That being 2-0 vs 2-0 teams.)
12-5 for a home favorite and I'm told 8-1 when they are laying five plus points. Not too shabby.
This week there is one 2-0 showdown with Jacksonville at Indianapolis. The Colts are a touchdown favorite with Jacksonville coming off that action packed, I mean er, 9-0 win over a sick Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers on Monday Night.
2) The Bluster
Now for the mere mortal handicapper that's enough to take to the bank. Not for old Timmy. You see somewhere along the meandering road of the last couple of weeks, the Jaguars have emerged as the under-rated team in the league. Heck even that dolt Tim in the week that was said the exact same thing after week one. Now suddenly instead of being under-rated everybody is talking about them being under-rated which makes them...over-rated.
Ah but I've wised up with my week two comment "Jaguars simply impressive in an unimpressive way" and au contraire my frere, the Colts have gone from being the over-rated team to suddenly being...under-rated.
You want proof? Well in the thing-a-ma-jig Bet Tracker it turns out there are more bets placed on the Jaggys this week than on the Colts. Not normal when one team has scored so many points like Indy.
You want more? Take a look at the TMW Power Rankings where Jacksonville is currently #6 and I quote "under-rated, tough team" when the Colts are #18 "should be higher but defense an issue."
Defense? They don't need no bleeping defense! Defense? It was 30-3 at the three quarters mark last week before they gave up the meaningless TD's.
Nah, you trust me on this one people. The Colts are going to open a can of whoop ass, are going to unload a day of reckoning on the full of themselves Jaguars, are going to show everybody who is in charge of that AFC South division.
Your best bet this Sunday is Indianapolis -7
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